Stock fact sheet · data as of
Avista Corporation (AVA): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Utilities · Diversified Utilities · United States · High Yield Income
Is AVA undervalued?
At 36.18 (close of 16 Oct 2026), AVA trades within a few percent of the GLS average fair value of 37.49 (3.5% below fair value). 8 models produced a value and they split 3 above the price to 5 below. A stock priced at fair value earns about half of the Wheel Score's Value points; the rest of the score comes from health, moat, premium and stability.
The 8 models disagree widely: Lynch gives 16.94 while GLS Growth gives 67.06. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files AVA under High Yield Income: a dividend yield above 4%.
Nine valuation models for AVA
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 30.96 | -14% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 45.70 | +26% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 55.84 | +54% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 16.94 | -53% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 67.06 | +85% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 24.08 | -33% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 28.95 | -20% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 30.37 | -16% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -62.16 | -272% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 37.00 | +2% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - AVA passes 5 of the nine Piotroski tests, which falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is low at 3.2 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 3.2%, ROE 7.1%, ROA 2.2% - with debt at 1.25 times equity and negative free cash flow.
The dividend yield is high at 5.44% (payout ratio 1%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual. Revenue comes mainly from Avista Utilities 97%, Alaska Electric Light Power 3% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | 3.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 3.2 / 10 | ROE | 7.1% |
| Debt / equity | 1.25 | ROA | 2.2% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -3.4% | Payout ratio | 1% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 65: Good
AVA scores 65 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Good band, 65-79). The score blends the margin of safety (Value, 14/25), Piotroski health (11/20), the GLS moat (5/15), the option premium on offer (20/20) and how easily the stock trades (15/20). Moat (5/15) is the part holding the score back.
Implied volatility is 36% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is thin - 1,855 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 736k shares a day on a market cap of $3.0B, with a beta of 0.21 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 15 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 14 / 25 | 3% margin of safety | |
| Health | 11 / 20 | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Moat | 5 / 15 | moat 3.2/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 36% | |
| Stability | 15 / 20 | 736k shares/day, $3.0B cap, beta 0.21 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (before the open), 19 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Diversified Utilities
The 9 companies below are the closest to Avista Corporation by market cap within the Diversified Utilities industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AQN Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. | 5.20 | 3.35 | -55% | 53Fair | $4.0B |
| BIPH Brookfield Infrastructure Finance ULC 5 % Notes 2021-24.05.81 Global | 15.33 | 28.60 | +46% | 39No options | $5.6B |
| UTL Unitil Corporation | 53.20 | 34.16 | -56% | 48Weak | $970M |
| AES The AES Corporation | 14.97 | 45.69 | +67% | 76Good | $10.7B |
| SREA Sempra | 18.83 | 25.71 | +27% | 39No options | $12.3B |
| BIP Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. | 37.27 | 26.64 | -40% | 48Weak | $17.2B |
| AQNB Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. | 25.63 | 17.93 | -43% | 31No options | $18.8B |
| SRE Sempra | 81.99 | 54.49 | -50% | 52Fair | $53.6B |
| TVC Tennessee Valley Authority | 23.82 | 17,297.56 | +100% | 39No options | $13M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about AVA
Is AVA undervalued right now?
Not meaningfully: at 36.18 the stock trades within a few percent of the GLS average fair value of 37.49 (3.5% below fair value, data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of AVA and what does it mean?
AVA scores 65 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for AVA?
37.49 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Avista Corporation report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (before the open), 19 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does AVA have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 58 listed contracts with 1,855 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 36% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.