Aflac Incorporated (AFL): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is AFL undervalued?

Aflac Incorporated (AFL) closed at 125.30 on 5 Nov 2026, 43% above the GLS average fair value of 87.49. 6 of the 9 models that produced a number value the shares below the current price. A gap this wide usually means the market is paying for growth or a story the trailing numbers do not show yet; the models work from filed results, not forecasts, so they are conservative by design.

There is a wide gap between GLS Growth (24.17) and DCF (158.93). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.

Ranked against every other company we cover, neither cheapness nor growth clearly wins for AFL, so the nightly engine files it under Blend (value score 34, growth score 19, out of 100).

Nine valuation models for AFL

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

Aflac Incorporated scores only 4 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, which fails the "Piotroski 6 or more" Wheel Trade Filter. A reading this low means several of the basic tests - positive earnings, positive operating cash flow, falling debt, no new share issuance - are not met. A GLS Moat score of 8.2/10 puts AFL among the more durable businesses we track: over up to ten years its returns on capital have stayed high, its margins steady and its balance sheet sound.

Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 9.6%, ROE 12.4%, ROA 3.1% - with debt at 0.29 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 4.2%.

The dividend yield is 1.92% at a payout ratio of 34%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Aflac Japan 51%, Aflac US 42%, Other Segments 7% (quarter Q2 FY2026).

Institutional ownership scores 8/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 1/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded insider buy was on 16 Sep 2026.

Wheel Score 33: Weak

With a Wheel Score of 33 Aflac Incorporated sits in the Weak band. It fails filter 3, below fair value - trades 43% above our fair value; and filter 4, financially healthy - Piotroski 4/9 (under 6); Value (weak) is its weakest part.

Implied volatility is 28% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: enough to pass the 25-80% Wheel Trade Filter, but under the 35-60% sweet spot the score rewards most. Chain open interest is 33,194 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.

Volume runs at 2.5M shares a day on a market cap of $62.8B, with a beta of 0.55 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that strong.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

The next earnings report is due on 3 Feb 2027, 90 days away - outside the window of a 30-45-day put sold today.

No analyst upgrades or downgrades were recorded in the last 30 days.

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

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