Stock fact sheet · data as of
Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Financial - Credit Services · United States · High Growth
Is AFRM undervalued?
Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) closed at 75.92 on 16 Oct 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 6 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 173.51, which puts the price 56% below it. 4 of the 6 models value the shares above the current price. A gap this wide is rare in our universe of ~7,400 US stocks and is exactly what the Value part of the Wheel Score rewards; it is also where the question "why is it this cheap?" matters most.
The 6 models disagree widely: Graham Number gives 45.51 while GLS Growth gives 348.44. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files AFRM under High Growth: revenue and earnings growing fast enough that the growth-based models carry the valuation.
Nine valuation models for AFRM
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | 45.51 | -40% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 325.56 | +329% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 142.29 | +87% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 348.44 | +359% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | 115.98 | +53% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 63.24 | -17% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -24.99 | -133% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 95.79 | +26% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - AFRM passes 5 of the nine Piotroski tests, which falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is 5.8 out of 10: a ten-year record that is consistent in some of the metrics the score tracks (revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, returns on capital) and patchy in others.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 12.6%, ROE 35.2%, ROA 12.2% - with debt at 1.79 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 4.4%.
Affirm Holdings, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Merchant Network 78%, Virtual Card Network 22% (quarter Q4 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded insider buy was on 16 Sep 2026.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | 12.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 5.8 / 10 | ROE | 35.2% |
| Debt / equity | 1.79 | ROA | 12.2% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 4.4% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 76: Good
AFRM scores 76 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Good band, 65-79). The score blends the margin of safety (Value, 25/25), Piotroski health (11/20), the GLS moat (9/15), the option premium on offer (17/20) and how easily the stock trades (14/20). Health (11/20) is the part holding the score back.
Implied volatility is 72% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (17 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. The option chain is deep: 264,096 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 5.9M shares a day on a market cap of $22.5B, with a beta of 3.82 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 14 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 56% margin of safety | |
| Health | 11 / 20 | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Moat | 9 / 15 | moat 5.8/10 | |
| Premium | 17 / 20 | implied volatility 72% | |
| Stability | 14 / 20 | 5.9M shares/day, $22.5B cap, beta 3.82 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 5 Nov 2026 (after the close), 20 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Financial - Credit Services
The 12 companies below are the closest to Affirm Holdings, Inc. by market cap within the Financial - Credit Services industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPN Global Payments Inc. | 84.17 | 65.78 | -28% | 45Weak | $22.3B |
| SYF Synchrony Financial | 71.72 | 343.54 | +79% | 92Prime | $23.3B |
| SOFI SoFi Technologies, Inc. | 14.22 | 16.96 | +16% | 73Good | $18.4B |
| KKRS KKR Group Finance Co. IX LLC 4. | 15.43 | 58.82 | +74% | 39No options | $13.7B |
| IX ORIX Corporation | 36.51 | 2,029.54 | +98% | 39No options | $40.5B |
| ALLY Ally Financial Inc. | 37.73 | 71.73 | +47% | 86Prime | $11.5B |
| PYPL PayPal Holdings, Inc. | 56.10 | 114.06 | +51% | 92Prime | $48.0B |
| FCFS FirstCash Holdings, Inc | 216.71 | 226.68 | +4% | 75Good | $9.4B |
| SLMBP SLM Corporation | 72.40 | 198.98 | +64% | 39No options | $6.5B |
| OMF OneMain Holdings, Inc. | 55.79 | 208.50 | +73% | 91Prime | $6.4B |
| CACC Credit Acceptance Corporation | 549.87 | 1,267.63 | +57% | 84Prime | $5.7B |
| KLAR Klarna Group plc | 13.51 | 8.66 | -56% | 45Weak | $5.1B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about AFRM
Is AFRM undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 75.92 the stock is 56% below the average fair value of 173.51 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of AFRM and what does it mean?
AFRM scores 76 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for AFRM?
173.51 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 6 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Affirm Holdings, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 5 Nov 2026 (after the close), 20 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does AFRM have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 1,000 listed contracts with 264,096 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 72% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.