Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AGIO): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is AGIO undervalued?

AGIO closed at 32.32 on 16 Oct 2026, more than 30% above the GLS average fair value of 3.68. Only 0 of the 1 models that produced a value sit above the price. By our models the shares are priced well beyond what the filed earnings, cash flow and book value support; the Sunday Scan drops names like this at the "below fair value" rule.

Only 1 of the nine models produced a value (DCF); the others need a dividend, positive free cash flow or positive book value the company does not have yet, so the average rests on a narrow base.

The nightly engine files AGIO under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.

Nine valuation models for AGIO

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

Financial health is weak: AGIO passes 3 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our screens drop the stock at the health rule; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. The GLS Moat score is low at 3.5 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.

Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -33.5%, ROE -34.6%, ROA -31.8% - with debt at 0.03 times equity and negative free cash flow.

Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Product 100% (quarter Q2 FY2026).

Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 10/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded Congressional buy was on 20 Aug 2026.

Wheel Score 36: Weak

AGIO scores 36 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50). Value 0/25, Health 7/20, Moat 5/15, Premium 7/20, Stability 17/20. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.

Implied volatility is 111% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (7 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. The option chain is deep: 53,701 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.

Volume runs at 2.0M shares a day on a market cap of $1.9B, with a beta of 0.63 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 17 of 20.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. reports earnings on 29 Oct 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

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The 12 companies below are the closest to Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. by market cap within the Biotechnology industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.

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