Stock fact sheet · data as of
Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Consumer Defensive · Agricultural Farm Products · Luxembourg · ADR · Defensive
Is AGRO undervalued?
At 10.05 (close of 16 Oct 2026), AGRO trades 259% over the GLS average fair value of 2.80, with 0 of 9 models above the price. The stock earns none of the Wheel Score's Value points at this price. That is a statement about price against trailing fundamentals, not about the company's prospects - the Wall Street View and the Growth tab on the Quote page carry the forward numbers.
There is a wide gap between GLS Growth (0.0598) and Graham Number (9.56). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files AGRO under Defensive: a low beta, a dividend and positive earnings.
Nine valuation models for AGRO
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 3.86 | -62% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 9.56 | -5% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 1.10 | -89% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 0.2717 | -97% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 0.0598 | -99% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 4.14 | -59% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 1.12 | -89% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 4.36 | -57% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 0.7548 | -92% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -3.61 | -136% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 14.00 | +39% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Adecoagro S.A. scores 5 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. A GLS Moat score of 2.4/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -0.2%, ROE -0.5%, ROA -0.2% - with debt at 1.18 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 0.8%.
The dividend yield is 2.95% at a payout ratio of 63%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Manufactured Products And Services Rend… 54%, Ethanol 13%, Sugar 10% (fiscal year FY2025).
Institutional ownership scores 1/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | -0.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 2.4 / 10 | ROE | -0.5% |
| Debt / equity | 1.18 | ROA | -0.2% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 0.8% | Payout ratio | 63% |
| Institutions | 1 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 50: Fair
A Wheel Score of 50 puts Adecoagro S.A. in the Fair band - below the 70 the Sunday Scan requires. Value 0/25, Health 11/20, Moat 4/15, Premium 20/20 and Stability 15/20; the weakest part is Value (0/25).
Implied volatility is 56% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 21,081 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 524k shares a day on a market cap of $5.7B, with a beta of -0.06 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 15 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -259% margin of safety | |
| Health | 11 / 20 | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Moat | 4 / 15 | moat 2.4/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 56% | |
| Stability | 15 / 20 | 524k shares/day, $5.7B cap, beta -0.06 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 10 Nov 2026 (after the close), 25 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Agricultural Farm Products
The 12 companies below are the closest to Adecoagro S.A. by market cap within the Agricultural Farm Products industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CALM Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. | 63.59 | 55.54 | -15% | 61Fair | $3.0B |
| ANDE The Andersons, Inc. | 65.68 | 69.47 | +5% | 68Good | $2.2B |
| TSN Tyson Foods, Inc. | 54.22 | 51.55 | -5% | 70Good | $19.1B |
| BG Bunge Global S.A. | 107.01 | 73.81 | -45% | 54Fair | $20.6B |
| DMC Del Monte Corporation | 29.85 | 42.84 | +30% | 79Good | $1.4B |
| DOLE Dole plc | 13.41 | 15.22 | +12% | 75Good | $1.3B |
| ADM Archer-Daniels-Midland Company | 82.93 | 49.88 | -66% | 59Fair | $40.0B |
| VITL Vital Farms, Inc. | 8.91 | 12.57 | +29% | 45Weak | $383M |
| LND BrasilAgro - Companhia Brasileira de Propriedades Agrícolas | 3.58 | 7.28 | +51% | 39No options | $367M |
| AFRI Forafric Global PLC | 11.85 | 5.31 | -123% | 14No options | $320M |
| VFF Village Farms International, Inc. | 2.56 | 4.92 | +48% | 72Good | $313M |
| CHSCO CHS Inc. | 25.58 | 27.59 | +7% | 39No options | $309M |
⚖ Compare AGRO with 7 of them All Consumer Defensive stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about AGRO
Is AGRO undervalued right now?
No: at 10.05 the stock trades 259% above the GLS average fair value of 2.80 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of AGRO and what does it mean?
AGRO scores 50 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for AGRO?
2.80 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Adecoagro S.A. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 10 Nov 2026 (after the close), 25 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does AGRO have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 84 listed contracts with 21,081 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 56% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.