Stock fact sheet · data as of
Alto Ingredients, Inc. (ALTO): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Basic Materials · Chemicals - Specialty · United States · Value
Is ALTO undervalued?
ALTO has a margin of safety of 54%: the stock closed at 3.66 on 16 Oct 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 7.91. 6 of the 8 valuation models that produced a number sit above the price. Our screens treat a discount this large as a strong starting point for a cash-secured put, not as a verdict - the fair value is a model output, and a wide gap can mean the models are missing something the market knows.
The 8 models disagree widely: DCF gives 0.5017 while Payback Time gives 14.79. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files ALTO under Value: positive earnings at a P/E of 18 or less.
Nine valuation models for ALTO
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 0.5017 | -86% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 7.27 | +99% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 11.03 | +201% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 2.73 | -25% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 5.14 | +40% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 14.25 | +289% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 14.79 | +304% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 7.60 | +108% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 0.1595 | -96% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 10.00 | +173% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
On financial health ALTO scores 7/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is low at 1.8 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 3.9%, ROE 5.4%, ROA 3.4% - with debt at 0.40 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 17.6%.
Alto Ingredients, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain.
Institutional ownership scores 5/10, insider activity 10/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | 3.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 1.8 / 10 | ROE | 5.4% |
| Debt / equity | 0.40 | ROA | 3.4% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 17.6% | Payout ratio | 2% |
| Institutions | 5 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 10 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 67: Good
ALTO scores 67 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Good band, 65-79). The score blends the margin of safety (Value, 25/25), Piotroski health (16/20), the GLS moat (3/15), the option premium on offer (12/20) and how easily the stock trades (12/20). Moat (3/15) is the part holding the score back.
Implied volatility is 90% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (12 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is 28,761 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 867k shares a day on a market cap of $284M, with a beta of 0.19 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 12 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 54% margin of safety | |
| Health | 16 / 20 | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Moat | 3 / 15 | moat 1.8/10 | |
| Premium | 12 / 20 | implied volatility 90% | |
| Stability | 12 / 20 | 867k shares/day, $284M cap, beta 0.19 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (after the close), 19 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Chemicals - Specialty
The 12 companies below are the closest to Alto Ingredients, Inc. by market cap within the Chemicals - Specialty industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEVO Gevo, Inc. | 1.17 | - | - | 41Weak | $289M |
| OEC Orion S.A. | 5.60 | 18.20 | +69% | 45Weak | $316M |
| FF FutureFuel Corp. | 5.65 | 1.68 | -236% | 35Weak | $248M |
| ASPI ASP Isotopes Inc. Common Stock | 2.21 | - | - | 37Weak | $339M |
| HDSN Hudson Technologies, Inc. | 5.04 | 7.09 | +29% | 66Good | $212M |
| CMT Core Molding Technologies, Inc. | 23.35 | 26.68 | +12% | 39No options | $207M |
| ASIX AdvanSix Inc. | 16.50 | 14.98 | -10% | 45Weak | $446M |
| ASPN Aspen Aerogels, Inc. | 5.40 | 10.47 | +48% | 45Weak | $448M |
| RYAM Rayonier Advanced Materials Inc. | 7.05 | - | - | 44Weak | $477M |
| FEAM 5E Advanced Materials Inc. | 3.16 | 0.6466 | -389% | 19No options | $132M |
| MATV Mativ Holdings, Inc. | 11.67 | 28.58 | +59% | 73Good | $644M |
| LWLG Lightwave Logic, Inc. | 4.20 | 0.5222 | -704% | 35Weak | $648M |
Screen the whole market the same way
A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the same eight-rule screen, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about ALTO
Is ALTO undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 3.66 the stock is 54% below the average fair value of 7.91 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of ALTO and what does it mean?
ALTO scores 67 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for ALTO?
7.91 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Alto Ingredients, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (after the close), 19 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does ALTO have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 180 listed contracts with 28,761 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 90% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.