Stock fact sheet · data as of
Ameresco, Inc. (AMRC): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Industrials · Engineering & Construction · United States · Blend
Is AMRC undervalued?
AMRC closed at 20.09 on 16 Oct 2026, more than 30% above the GLS average fair value of 14.59. Only 1 of the 5 models that produced a value sit above the price. By our models the shares are priced well beyond what the filed earnings, cash flow and book value support; the Sunday Scan drops names like this at the "below fair value" rule.
There is a wide gap between GLS Growth (5.56) and Graham Growth (30.59). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files AMRC under Blend.
Nine valuation models for AMRC
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | 17.52 | -13% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 30.59 | +52% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 13.37 | -33% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 5.56 | -72% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 5.94 | -70% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -35.06 | -274% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 44.67 | +122% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Ameresco, Inc. scores only 4 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, which fails the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. A reading this low means several of the basic tests - positive earnings, positive operating cash flow, falling debt, no new share issuance - are not met. A GLS Moat score of 3.5/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 1.5%, ROE 4.1%, ROA 1.0% - with debt at 1.80 times equity and negative free cash flow.
Ameresco, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Project Revenue 74%, Energy Assets Revenue 15%, Operations And Maintenance Revenue 7% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 8/10, insider activity 7/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 4 / 9 | ROIC | 1.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 3.5 / 10 | ROE | 4.1% |
| Debt / equity | 1.80 | ROA | 1.0% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -49.4% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 8 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 7 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 36: Weak
With a Wheel Score of 36 Ameresco, Inc. sits in the Weak band. The parts - Value 0/25, Health 9/20, Moat 5/15, Premium 13/20, Stability 9/20 - show where: Value (0/25) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 89% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (13 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is 9,884 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 791k shares a day on a market cap of $1.1B, with a beta of 2.62 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 9 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -38% margin of safety | |
| Health | 9 / 20 | Piotroski 4/9 | |
| Moat | 5 / 15 | moat 3.5/10 | |
| Premium | 13 / 20 | implied volatility 89% | |
| Stability | 9 / 20 | 791k shares/day, $1.1B cap, beta 2.62 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 2 Nov 2026 (after the close), 17 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Engineering & Construction
The 12 companies below are the closest to Ameresco, Inc. by market cap within the Engineering & Construction industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WLDN Willdan Group, Inc. | 72.01 | 109.07 | +34% | 69Good | $1.1B |
| BWMN Bowman Consulting Group Ltd. | 42.79 | 20.84 | -105% | 47Weak | $742M |
| ITG ITG Inc. | 5.94 | 14.41 | +59% | 39No options | $720M |
| CDLR Cadeler A/S | 21.36 | 71.53 | +70% | 39No options | $2.1B |
| BBCP Concrete Pumping Holdings, Inc. | 9.12 | 5.82 | -57% | 45Weak | $460M |
| PHOE Phoenix Asia Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares | 17.71 | 0.0497 | -35535% | 6No options | $383M |
| ORN Orion Group Holdings, Inc. | 8.77 | 5.67 | -55% | 41Weak | $355M |
| EXPO Exponent, Inc. | 72.28 | 38.35 | -88% | 60Fair | $3.4B |
| DBMG DBM Global Inc. | 75.00 | 68,975.44 | +100% | 39No options | $315M |
| MTRX Matrix Service Company | 10.14 | 28.62 | +65% | 45Weak | $287M |
| TPC Tutor Perini Corporation | 79.48 | 114.12 | +30% | 78Good | $4.2B |
| PRIM Primoris Services Corporation | 78.03 | 72.47 | -8% | 68Good | $4.2B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about AMRC
Is AMRC undervalued right now?
No: at 20.09 the stock trades 38% above the GLS average fair value of 14.59 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of AMRC and what does it mean?
AMRC scores 36 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for AMRC?
14.59 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 5 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Ameresco, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 2 Nov 2026 (after the close), 17 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does AMRC have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 98 listed contracts with 9,884 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 89% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.