Stock fact sheet · data as of
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (ARI): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage · United States · High Yield Income
Is ARI undervalued?
At 6.41 (close of 16 Oct 2026), ARI trades 62% below the GLS average fair value of 16.99. That average comes from 9 models run on the latest filings, and 7 of them land above the current price. Margins of safety over 30% are the exception rather than the rule across the ~7,400 stocks we value each night, so the number earns Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. the full Value points in the Wheel Score - and a closer look at what the market is pricing in.
The 9 models disagree widely: Lynch gives 4.03 while DDM gives 66.21. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files ARI under High Yield Income: a dividend yield above 4%.
Nine valuation models for ARI
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 18.29 | +185% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 14.73 | +130% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 16.25 | +154% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 4.03 | -37% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 6.34 | -1% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 8.67 | +35% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 7.20 | +12% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 66.21 | +933% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 11.19 | +75% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -60.90 | -1050% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 12.00 | +87% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
On financial health ARI scores 7/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is low at 3.4 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 1.3%, ROE 6.8%, ROA 1.3% - with debt at 4.27 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 5.3%. Debt of 4.27 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
The dividend yield is high at 70.20% (payout ratio 116%) - a payout above 100% of earnings, which is not covered by profits. A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual.
Institutional ownership scores 7/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | 1.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 3.4 / 10 | ROE | 6.8% |
| Debt / equity | 4.27 | ROA | 1.3% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 5.3% | Payout ratio | 116% |
| Institutions | 7 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 71: Good
ARI scores 71 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Good band, 65-79). The score blends the margin of safety (Value, 25/25), Piotroski health (16/20), the GLS moat (5/15), the option premium on offer (10/20) and how easily the stock trades (15/20). Moat (5/15) is the part holding the score back.
Implied volatility is 99% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (10 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is 22,877 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 2.4M shares a day on a market cap of $825M, with a beta of 1.48 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 15 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 62% margin of safety | |
| Health | 16 / 20 | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Moat | 5 / 15 | moat 3.4/10 | |
| Premium | 10 / 20 | implied volatility 99% | |
| Stability | 15 / 20 | 2.4M shares/day, $825M cap, beta 1.48 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. reports earnings on 29 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk. The shares go ex-dividend on 30 Oct 2026 (4.10 per share), so a covered call sold before then carries a small early-assignment risk around that date.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in REIT - Mortgage
The 12 companies below are the closest to Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. by market cap within the REIT - Mortgage industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PMTU PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust | 25.10 | 172.24 | +85% | 39No options | $807M |
| MITN TPG Mortgage Investment Trust Inc 9.500% Senior Notes due 2029 | 25.00 | 132.12 | +81% | 39No options | $795M |
| CIMP Chimera Investment Corporation | 24.67 | 5.80 | -325% | 11No options | $734M |
| CIMN Chimera Investment Corporation | 24.92 | 5.30 | -371% | 20No options | $732M |
| CIM Chimera Investment Corporation | 8.55 | 4.92 | -74% | 46Weak | $715M |
| ADAMG Adamas Trust, Inc. - 9.125% Senior Notes Due 2030 | 24.36 | 154.15 | +84% | 38No options | $714M |
| ADAMH Adamas Trust, Inc. | 24.86 | 156.94 | +84% | 38No options | $710M |
| ADAMM Adamas Trust, Inc. | 24.50 | 154.93 | +84% | 38No options | $705M |
| ADAMI Adamas Trust Inc. 9.125% Sr. Notes due 2029 | 24.73 | 156.21 | +84% | 38No options | $704M |
| ADAMO Adamas Trust, Inc. 9.250% Senior Notes Due 2031 | 24.25 | 45.03 | +46% | 32No options | $701M |
| ADAM Adamas Trust, Inc. | 7.79 | 44.42 | +82% | 80Prime | $700M |
| ADAML Adamas Trust, Inc. - 6.875% Series F Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock, $0.01 par value per share | 23.69 | 150.42 | +84% | 38No options | $697M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about ARI
Is ARI undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 6.41 the stock is 62% below the average fair value of 16.99 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of ARI and what does it mean?
ARI scores 71 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for ARI?
16.99 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 29 Oct 2026 (after the close), 13 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does ARI have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 98 listed contracts with 22,877 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 99% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.