Stock fact sheet · data as of
Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol AROW · Financial Services · Banks - Regional · United States · Blend
Is AROW undervalued?
AROW closed at 39.54 on 5 Nov 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 37.39 - 5.8% above fair value, which our scans read as "fairly priced". 3 of 9 models are above the current price. There is no discount to lean on here, so the margin of safety is not the reason to look at the stock.
There is a wide gap between GLS Growth (10.02) and Graham Growth (75.59). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
Ranked against every other company we cover, neither cheapness nor growth clearly wins for AROW, so the nightly engine files it under Blend (value score 47, growth score 44, out of 100).
Nine valuation models for AROW
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 28.07 | -29% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 38.84 | -2% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 75.59 | +91% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 28.46 | -28% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 10.02 | -75% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 62.47 | +58% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 48.88 | +24% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 17.51 | -56% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 26.64 | -33% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -214.99 | -644% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 45.00 | +14% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Arrow Financial Corporation scores 5 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that falls one point short of the "Piotroski 6 or more" Wheel Trade Filter. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. A GLS Moat score of 7.7/10 puts AROW among the more durable businesses we track: over up to ten years its returns on capital have stayed high, its margins steady and its balance sheet sound.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 9.5%, ROE 10.2%, ROA 1.0% - with debt at 0.07 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 6.1%.
The dividend yield is 3.01% at a payout ratio of 44%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Deposit Account 52%, Fiduciary and Trust 48% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 8/10, insider activity 9/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | 9.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 7.7 / 10 | ROE | 10.2% |
| Debt / equity | 0.07 | ROA | 1.0% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 6.1% | Payout ratio | 44% |
| Institutions | 8 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 9 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 27: Weak
With a Wheel Score of 27 Arrow Financial Corporation sits in the Weak band. It fails filter 1, options that actually trade - options too quiet (22 open interest, 14 a day); and filter 3, below fair value - trades 6% above our fair value; and filter 4, financially healthy - Piotroski 5/9 (under 6); and filter 6, no serious red flags - Red Flags score 55 (under 60); and filter 8, big enough - market cap $733M (under $1.0B); Value (weak) is its weakest part.
Implied volatility is 30% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: enough to pass the 25-80% Wheel Trade Filter, but under the 35-60% sweet spot the score rewards most. Chain open interest is thin - 22 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 91k shares a day on a market cap of $733M, with a beta of 0.73 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that fair.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Fails | options too quiet (22 open interest, 14 a day) |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Passes | Profitable over the last twelve months - not a speculative stock, fund or note |
| 3 | Below fair value | Fails | trades 6% above our fair value |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Fails | Piotroski 5/9 (under 6) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Passes | Long-term debt repaid from 3 years of operating cash flow or less (6 for real estate and utilities; banks and insurers are not judged on it) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Fails | Red Flags score 55 (under 60) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Fails | market cap $733M (under $1.0B) |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Weak | 6% above fair value | |
| Premium | Good | implied volatility 30% | |
| Moat | Good | moat 7.7/10 | |
| Health | Fair | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Red Flags | Weak | Red Flags score 55/100 | |
| Option trading | Weak | 14 contracts a day, 22 open interest | |
| Stability | Fair | beta 0.73, $733M company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for AROW in the nightly calendar. The shares go ex-dividend on 10 Nov 2026 (0.3000 per share), so a covered call sold before then carries a small early-assignment risk around that date.
No analyst upgrades or downgrades were recorded in the last 30 days.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Banks - Regional
The 12 companies below are the closest to Arrow Financial Corporation by market cap within the Banks - Regional industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VBNK VersaBank | 22.95 | 27.16 | +15% | 41Weak | $744M |
| PFIS Peoples Financial Services Corp. | 74.69 | 88.97 | +16% | 27No options | $748M |
| CBNK Capital Bancorp, Inc. | 43.78 | 44.89 | +2% | 20Weak | $715M |
| BCAL California BanCorp | 22.19 | 40.61 | +45% | 33No options | $713M |
| BHB Bar Harbor Bankshares | 42.51 | 39.72 | -7% | 31Weak | $713M |
| HTB HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc. | 47.84 | 96.20 | +50% | 45Weak | $757M |
| CUBB Customers Bancorp, Inc 5.375% S | 20.76 | 229.32 | +91% | 24No options | $709M |
| RRBI Red River Bancshares, Inc. | 107.68 | 108.90 | +1% | 25No options | $709M |
| WASH Washington Trust Bancorp, Inc. | 40.28 | 37.54 | -7% | 39Weak | $768M |
| HIFS Hingham Institution for Savings | 320.17 | 380.09 | +16% | 28No options | $698M |
| SHBI Shore Bancshares, Inc. | 23.13 | 28.79 | +20% | 48Weak | $770M |
| MSBI Midland States Bancorp, Inc. | 33.44 | 38.17 | +12% | 41Weak | $696M |
⚖ Compare AROW with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about AROW
Is AROW undervalued right now?
Not meaningfully: at 39.54 the stock trades within a few percent of the GLS average fair value of 37.39 (5.8% above fair value, data as of 5 Nov 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of AROW and what does it mean?
AROW scores 27 out of 100 (Weak) - it fails Wheel Trade Filters 1, 3, 4, 6, 8. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for AROW?
37.39 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Arrow Financial Corporation report earnings next?
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for AROW in our calendar as of 5 Nov 2026; the Calendars page is refreshed every morning.
Does AROW have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 24 listed contracts with 22 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 30% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.