Stock fact sheet · data as of
Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (MSBIP): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Banks - Regional · United States · Defensive
Is MSBIP undervalued?
MSBIP has a margin of safety of 33%: the stock closed at 25.19 on 16 Oct 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 37.86. 3 of the 8 valuation models that produced a number sit above the price. Our screens treat a discount this large as a strong starting point for a cash-secured put, not as a verdict - the fair value is a model output, and a wide gap can mean the models are missing something the market knows.
There is a wide gap between GLS Growth (4.66) and 10 Cap (122.34). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files MSBIP under Defensive: a low beta, a dividend and positive earnings.
Nine valuation models for MSBIP
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | 35.24 | +40% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 22.77 | -10% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 4.88 | -81% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 4.66 | -82% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 122.34 | +386% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 76.29 | +203% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 18.98 | -25% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 17.69 | -30% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -169.70 | -774% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 0.0000 | -100% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Midland States Bancorp, Inc. scores 7 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule with room to spare. A GLS Moat score of 3.0/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -13.1%, ROE -22.0%, ROA -1.9% - with debt at 0.67 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 17.4%.
The dividend yield is 3.99% at a payout ratio of 85%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Asset Management 46%, Interchange Revenues 21%, Nonsufficient Fund Fees 13% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 5/10, insider activity 6/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | -13.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 3.0 / 10 | ROE | -22.0% |
| Debt / equity | 0.67 | ROA | -1.9% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 17.4% | Payout ratio | 85% |
| Institutions | 5 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 6 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 39: No options
No options are listed on Midland States Bancorp, Inc. in our nightly snapshot. The Wheel Score is therefore capped at 39 (it reads 39) and the stock is left out of every options screen; the fair value and health figures above are still useful for a plain stock position.
Volume runs at 5k shares a day on a market cap of $669M, with a beta of 0.64 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 7 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 33% margin of safety | |
| Health | 16 / 20 | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Moat | 5 / 15 | moat 3.0/10 | |
| Premium | 0 / 20 | no option data | |
| Stability | 7 / 20 | 5k shares/day, $669M cap, beta 0.64 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Midland States Bancorp, Inc. reports earnings on 22 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Banks - Regional
The 12 companies below are the closest to Midland States Bancorp, Inc. by market cap within the Banks - Regional industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSBI Midland States Bancorp, Inc. | 32.30 | 42.70 | +24% | 73Good | $670M |
| CARE Carter Bankshares, Inc. | 30.31 | 45.65 | +34% | 74Good | $672M |
| THVB Thomasville Bancshares, Inc. | 104.48 | 189.45 | +45% | 39No options | $662M |
| PFIS Peoples Financial Services Corp. | 67.58 | 93.27 | +28% | 39No options | $677M |
| SUPV Grupo Supervielle S.A. | 7.01 | 3.42 | -105% | 40Weak | $661M |
| RRBI Red River Bancshares, Inc. | 100.15 | 103.80 | +4% | 39No options | $659M |
| CCB Coastal Financial Corporation | 42.97 | 297.73 | +86% | 45Weak | $657M |
| AROW Arrow Financial Corporation | 36.80 | 45.19 | +19% | 70Good | $682M |
| TCBX Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. | 41.20 | 103.49 | +60% | 73Good | $686M |
| ACNB ACNB Corporation | 63.18 | 62.20 | -2% | 67Good | $643M |
| CBNK Capital Bancorp, Inc. | 39.43 | 54.92 | +28% | 76Good | $642M |
| HIFS Hingham Institution for Savings | 293.95 | 421.68 | +30% | 39No options | $641M |
⚖ Compare MSBIP with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about MSBIP
Is MSBIP undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 25.19 the stock is 33% below the average fair value of 37.86 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of MSBIP and what does it mean?
MSBIP has no listed options in our nightly snapshot, so it cannot be wheeled; its Wheel Score is capped at 39 and shown as "No options".
What is the GLS fair value for MSBIP?
37.86 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Midland States Bancorp, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 22 Oct 2026 (after the close), 6 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does MSBIP have listed options, and how liquid are they?
No. The nightly options snapshot found no listed contracts on MSBIP, so the wheel strategy cannot be run on it and the Wheel Score is capped at 39.