Stock fact sheet · data as of
ASML Holding N.V. (ASML): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Technology · Semiconductors · Netherlands · ADR · High Growth
Is ASML undervalued?
At 1,657.44 (close of 16 Oct 2026), ASML trades 46% over the GLS average fair value of 1,137.77, with 3 of 9 models above the price. The stock earns none of the Wheel Score's Value points at this price. That is a statement about price against trailing fundamentals, not about the company's prospects - the Wall Street View and the Growth tab on the Quote page carry the forward numbers.
There is a wide gap between DDM (114.48) and GLS Growth (2,437.39). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files ASML under High Growth: revenue and earnings growing fast enough that the growth-based models carry the valuation.
Nine valuation models for ASML
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 311.92 | -81% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 213.49 | -87% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 2,260.27 | +36% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 986.61 | -40% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 2,437.39 | +47% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 1,288.10 | -22% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 2,185.32 | +32% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 114.48 | -93% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 442.37 | -73% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -0.8777 | -100% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 2,330.75 | +41% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
ASML Holding N.V. scores 9 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule with room to spare. A GLS Moat score of 8.8/10 puts ASML among the more durable businesses we track: over ten years the metrics the score watches (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, ROIC) have mostly moved the right way, year after year.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 40.0%, ROE 49.0%, ROA 19.0% - with debt at 0.22 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 3.7%.
The dividend yield is 0.53% with a payout ratio of 22% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business. Revenue comes mainly from NXE 32%, ArF immersion 32%, Net service and field option sales 25% (fiscal year FY2025).
Institutional ownership scores 2/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 9 / 9 | ROIC | 40.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 8.8 / 10 | ROE | 49.0% |
| Debt / equity | 0.22 | ROA | 19.0% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 3.7% | Payout ratio | 22% |
| Institutions | 2 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 73: Good
With a Wheel Score of 73 - the Good band - ASML Holding N.V. clears the Sunday Scan's "70 or higher" rule. The parts: Value 0/25, Health 20/20, Moat 13/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 20/20; Value (0/25) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 42% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. The option chain is deep: 60,330 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 2.0M shares a day on a market cap of $638.8B, with a beta of 1.30 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -46% margin of safety | |
| Health | 20 / 20 | Piotroski 9/9 | |
| Moat | 13 / 15 | moat 8.8/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 42% | |
| Stability | 20 / 20 | 2.0M shares/day, $638.8B cap, beta 1.30 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for ASML in the nightly calendar.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Semiconductors
The 12 companies below are the closest to ASML Holding N.V. by market cap within the Semiconductors industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC Intel Corp. | 95.37 | 16.71 | -471% | 45Weak | $504.1B |
| AMD Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. | 562.23 | 130.40 | -331% | 63Fair | $917.8B |
| SKHY SK hynix Inc. | 147.55 | 208,519.79 | +100% | 83Prime | $1.05T |
| MU Micron Technology, Inc. | 931.24 | 1,610.41 | +42% | 90Prime | $1.05T |
| LRCX Lam Research Corporation | 277.46 | 98.92 | -181% | 65Good | $347.2B |
| AMAT Applied Materials, Inc. | 430.01 | 256.36 | -68% | 65Good | $341.3B |
| ARM Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares | 244.79 | 32.80 | -646% | 58Fair | $261.4B |
| TXN Texas Instruments Incorporated | 280.65 | 87.17 | -222% | 62Fair | $256.3B |
| AVGO Broadcom Inc. | 344.33 | 224.00 | -54% | 68Good | $1.64T |
| KLAC KLA Corporation | 174.46 | 71.16 | -145% | 65Good | $227.7B |
| MRVL Marvell Technology, Inc. | 241.24 | 71.57 | -237% | 57Fair | $211.3B |
| ADI Analog Devices, Inc. | 403.95 | 151.68 | -166% | 64Fair | $195.7B |
Screen the whole market the same way
A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the same eight-rule screen, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about ASML
Is ASML undervalued right now?
No: at 1,657.44 the stock trades 46% above the GLS average fair value of 1,137.77 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of ASML and what does it mean?
ASML scores 73 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for ASML?
1,137.77 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does ASML Holding N.V. report earnings next?
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for ASML in our calendar as of 16 Oct 2026; the Calendars page is refreshed every morning.
Does ASML have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 1,000 listed contracts with 60,330 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 42% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.