Stock fact sheet · data as of
Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol ASTL · Basic Materials · Steel · Canada · Speculative
Is ASTL undervalued?
ASTL closed at 5.27 on 5 Nov 2026, more than 30% above the GLS average fair value of 1.48. Only 0 of the 1 models that produced a value sit above the price. By our models the shares are priced well beyond what the filed earnings, cash flow and book value support; the "below fair value" Wheel Trade Filter keeps names like this under 70.
Only 1 of the nine models produced a value (DDM); the others need a dividend, positive free cash flow or positive book value the company does not have yet, so the average rests on a narrow base.
The nightly engine files ASTL under Speculative - it is losing money or its Piotroski health score is 3 or lower - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for ASTL
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 1.48 | -72% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -3.68 | -170% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 0.0000 | -100% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is weak: ASTL passes 2 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our scans drop the stock at the health filter; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. The GLS Moat score is low at 1.3 out of 10: returns on capital, margins or the balance sheet have not shown a lasting edge yet - often a young company, a thin-margin business or one that has only recently turned profitable.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -72.8%, ROE -200.5%, ROA -46.5% - with debt at 1.76 times equity and negative free cash flow.
The dividend yield is 1.91% at a payout ratio of 0%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Steel Sheet and Strip 63%, Steel Plate 27%, Freight 8% (quarter Q3 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 8/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 2 / 9 | ROIC | -72.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 1.3 / 10 | ROE | -200.5% |
| Debt / equity | 1.76 | ROA | -46.5% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -21.1% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 8 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 20: Weak
ASTL scores 20 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50): it fails filter 2, a real business, not a gamble - speculative (a loss, or a weak Piotroski score); and filter 3, below fair value - trades 256% above our fair value; and filter 4, financially healthy - Piotroski 2/9 (under 6); and filter 5, can repay its debt - debt with no positive cash flow to repay it; and filter 6, no serious red flags - Red Flags score 45 (under 60); and filter 8, big enough - market cap $557M (under $1.0B), and the parts are thin too - value weak, premium strong, moat weak, health weak, red flags weak, option trading weak, stability weak. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 66% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% top of the sweet spot. It still passes the 25-80% filter, but the Wheel Score rewards it less because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is 4,681 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 1.6M shares a day on a market cap of $557M, with a beta of 1.63 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that weak.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Passes | Listed options with 1,000+ contracts of open interest and 100+ traded a day |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Fails | speculative (a loss, or a weak Piotroski score) |
| 3 | Below fair value | Fails | trades 256% above our fair value |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Fails | Piotroski 2/9 (under 6) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Fails | debt with no positive cash flow to repay it |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Fails | Red Flags score 45 (under 60) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Fails | market cap $557M (under $1.0B) |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Weak | 256% above fair value | |
| Premium | Strong | implied volatility 66% | |
| Moat | Weak | moat 1.3/10 | |
| Health | Weak | Piotroski 2/9 | |
| Red Flags | Weak | Red Flags score 45/100 | |
| Option trading | Weak | 745 contracts a day, 4,681 open interest | |
| Stability | Weak | beta 1.63, $557M company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for ASTL in the nightly calendar.
No analyst upgrades or downgrades were recorded in the last 30 days.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Steel
The 12 companies below are the closest to Algoma Steel Group Inc. by market cap within the Steel industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTUS Metallus Inc. | 17.87 | 13.96 | -28% | 34Weak | $741M |
| SXC SunCoke Energy, Inc. | 10.45 | 20.15 | +48% | 46Weak | $887M |
| SID Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional | 0.7766 | 8.77 | +91% | 27Weak | $1.0B |
| FRD Friedman Industries, Incorporated | 38.79 | 27.23 | -42% | 15No options | $280M |
| WEBC Webco Industries, Inc. | 400.00 | 353.07 | -13% | 17No options | $273M |
| MSB Mesabi Trust | 17.63 | 16.76 | -5% | 30Weak | $231M |
| HLP Hongli Group Inc. | 2.93 | 0.2893 | -913% | 19No options | $219M |
| WS Worthington Steel, Inc. | 40.48 | 25.82 | -57% | 25Weak | $2.1B |
| LUD Luda Technology Group Limited | 3.65 | 0.5278 | -592% | 12No options | $83M |
| SIM Grupo Simec, S.A.B. de C.V. | 24.80 | 23.39 | -6% | 19No options | $4.1B |
| CMC Commercial Metals Company | 66.46 | 59.09 | -12% | 37Weak | $7.3B |
| CLF Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. | 12.84 | 22.31 | +42% | 50Fair | $7.3B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about ASTL
Is ASTL undervalued right now?
No: at 5.27 the stock trades 256% above the GLS average fair value of 1.48 (data as of 5 Nov 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of ASTL and what does it mean?
ASTL scores 20 out of 100 (Weak) - it fails Wheel Trade Filters 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for ASTL?
1.48 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 1 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Algoma Steel Group Inc. report earnings next?
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for ASTL in our calendar as of 5 Nov 2026; the Calendars page is refreshed every morning.
Does ASTL have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 24 listed contracts with 4,681 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 66% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.