Stock fact sheet · data as of
Hongli Group Inc. (HLP): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Basic Materials · Steel · China · Blend
Is HLP undervalued?
At 3.00 (close of 16 Oct 2026), HLP trades 937% over the GLS average fair value of 0.2893, with 0 of 7 models above the price. The stock earns none of the Wheel Score's Value points at this price. That is a statement about price against trailing fundamentals, not about the company's prospects - the Wall Street View and the Growth tab on the Quote page carry the forward numbers.
The 7 models disagree widely: GLS Growth gives 0.0776 while Graham Number gives 0.6860. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files HLP under Blend.
Nine valuation models for HLP
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | 0.6860 | -77% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 0.4277 | -86% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 0.1060 | -96% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 0.0776 | -97% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 0.2605 | -91% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 0.1728 | -94% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 0.2945 | -90% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 0.0231 | -99% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 0.0000 | -100% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - HLP passes 5 of the nine Piotroski tests, which falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is low at 3.1 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 2.8%, ROE 3.4%, ROA 2.7% - with debt at 0.20 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 0.3%.
Hongli Group Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain.
Institutional ownership scores 5/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | 2.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 3.1 / 10 | ROE | 3.4% |
| Debt / equity | 0.20 | ROA | 2.7% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 0.3% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 5 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 24: No options
HLP has no listed options in the nightly snapshot, so there is nothing to sell and the stock cannot be wheeled however good the business; the Wheel Score is capped at 39 and shown as "No options" (24 here). The valuation and quality numbers still apply to owning the shares outright.
Volume runs at 242k shares a day on a market cap of $224M, with a beta of 0.49 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 8 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -937% margin of safety | |
| Health | 11 / 20 | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Moat | 5 / 15 | moat 3.1/10 | |
| Premium | 0 / 20 | no option data | |
| Stability | 8 / 20 | 242k shares/day, $224M cap, beta 0.49 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for HLP in the nightly calendar.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Steel
The 12 companies below are the closest to Hongli Group Inc. by market cap within the Steel industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSB Mesabi Trust | 18.04 | 16.69 | -8% | 50Fair | $237M |
| WEBC Webco Industries, Inc. | 353.00 | 345.40 | -2% | 33No options | $241M |
| FRD Friedman Industries, Incorporated | 41.26 | 27.04 | -53% | 20No options | $298M |
| ASTL Algoma Steel Group Inc. | 4.10 | - | - | 43Weak | $433M |
| LUD Luda Technology Group Limited | 3.89 | 0.3552 | -995% | 3No options | $88M |
| MTUS Metallus Inc. | 20.42 | 6.80 | -200% | 45Weak | $846M |
| SXC SunCoke Energy, Inc. | 10.13 | 10.24 | +1% | 45Weak | $860M |
| SID Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional | 1.21 | 15.90 | +92% | 45Weak | $1.6B |
| WS Worthington Steel, Inc. | 38.75 | 25.54 | -52% | 42Weak | $2.0B |
| SIM Grupo Simec, S.A.B. de C.V. | 26.32 | 198.95 | +87% | 39No options | $4.4B |
| ZKIN ZK International Group Co., Ltd. | 1.71 | - | - | 25No options | $10M |
| HUDI Huadi International Group Co., Ltd. | 0.6717 | - | - | 21No options | $10M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about HLP
Is HLP undervalued right now?
No: at 3.00 the stock trades 937% above the GLS average fair value of 0.2893 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of HLP and what does it mean?
HLP has no listed options in our nightly snapshot, so it cannot be wheeled; its Wheel Score is capped at 39 and shown as "No options".
What is the GLS fair value for HLP?
0.2893 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 7 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Hongli Group Inc. report earnings next?
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for HLP in our calendar as of 16 Oct 2026; the Calendars page is refreshed every morning.
Does HLP have listed options, and how liquid are they?
No. The nightly options snapshot found no listed contracts on HLP, so the wheel strategy cannot be run on it and the Wheel Score is capped at 39.