Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. (AXTA): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is AXTA undervalued?

Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. (AXTA) closed at 33.73 on 16 Oct 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 8 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 46.66, so the price sits 28% below it. 5 of the 8 models value the shares above the current price. A margin of safety between 10% and 30% is where most of the Sunday Scan candidates come from.

The 8 models disagree widely: Lynch gives 15.78 while Payback Time gives 82.35. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.

The nightly engine files AXTA under Blend.

Nine valuation models for AXTA

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

On financial health AXTA scores 7/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is 6.4 out of 10: a ten-year record that is consistent in some of the metrics the score tracks (revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, returns on capital) and patchy in others.

Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 6.6%, ROE 16.1%, ROA 5.0% - with debt at 1.45 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 6.9%.

Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Performance Coatings 65%, Mobility Coatings 35% (quarter Q2 FY2026).

Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 1/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded insider buy was on 19 Sep 2026.

Wheel Score 88: Prime

AXTA scores 88 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Prime band (80 and above), which fewer than one stock in twenty reaches on any night. The score blends five things a wheel trader checks before selling a cash-secured put: the margin of safety (Value, 24/25), Piotroski health (16/20), the GLS moat (10/15), the option premium on offer (20/20) and how easily the stock trades (19/20).

Implied volatility is 39% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is thin - 969 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.

Volume runs at 2.5M shares a day on a market cap of $7.2B, with a beta of 1.26 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 19 of 20.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. reports earnings on 27 Oct 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

Similar stocks in Chemicals - Specialty

The 12 companies below are the closest to Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. by market cap within the Chemicals - Specialty industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.

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