Stock fact sheet · data as of
The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Asset Management · United States · Speculative / Distressed
Is CG undervalued?
The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG) closed at 36.81 on 16 Oct 2026, 19% above the GLS average fair value of 30.81. Only 2 of the 7 models that produced a number value the shares above the current price. The margin of safety is negative, so the stock fails the "below fair value" rule of the Sunday Scan; a premium of this size is common for companies whose growth the models are conservative about.
The 7 models disagree widely: EPV gives 11.30 while GLS Growth gives 61.72. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files CG under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for CG
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 30.72 | -17% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 21.48 | -42% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 49.10 | +33% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 20.78 | -44% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 61.72 | +68% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 20.60 | -44% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 11.30 | -69% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -52.91 | -244% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 52.56 | +43% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is weak: CG passes 3 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our screens drop the stock at the health rule; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. The GLS Moat score is low at 1.1 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 4.1%, ROE 14.0%, ROA 2.8% - with debt at 2.41 times equity and negative free cash flow. Debt of 2.41 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
The dividend yield is 3.80% at a payout ratio of 104%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Fund Management Fee 60%, Performance Allocations 24%, Incentive Fee 9% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 8/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 3 / 9 | ROIC | 4.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 1.1 / 10 | ROE | 14.0% |
| Debt / equity | 2.41 | ROA | 2.8% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -15.2% | Payout ratio | 104% |
| Institutions | 8 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 45: Weak
CG scores 45 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50), capped at 45 because the engine files it as Speculative / Distressed. Value 4/25, Health 7/20, Moat 2/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 18/20. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 51% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. The option chain is deep: 114,710 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 3.7M shares a day on a market cap of $13.1B, with a beta of 1.87 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 18 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 4 / 25 | -19% margin of safety | |
| Health | 7 / 20 | Piotroski 3/9 | |
| Moat | 2 / 15 | moat 1.1/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 51% | |
| Stability | 18 / 20 | 3.7M shares/day, $13.1B cap, beta 1.87 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (before the open), 19 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Asset Management
The 12 companies below are the closest to The Carlyle Group Inc. by market cap within the Asset Management industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FAOTX American Funds 2020 Target Date Retirement Fd Cl F-1 | 14.61 | 74.57 | +80% | 39No options | $13.3B |
| IVZ Invesco Ltd. | 28.80 | 37.04 | +22% | 45Weak | $12.7B |
| ARCC Ares Capital Corporation | 18.92 | 24.65 | +23% | 68Good | $13.6B |
| HLMNX Harding Loevner International Equity Portfolio | 31.32 | 27.87 | -12% | 39No options | $12.6B |
| SEIC SEI Investments Company | 105.27 | 99.91 | -5% | 70Good | $12.6B |
| RRTBX T. Rowe Price Retirement 2020 Fund Class R | 20.15 | 295.05 | +93% | 39No options | $12.4B |
| OWL Blue Owl Capital Inc. | 8.97 | 9.96 | +10% | 75Good | $14.0B |
| OXLCZ Oxford Lane Capital Corp. 5.00% Notes due 2027 | 24.95 | 69.99 | +64% | 39No options | $12.0B |
| DFUSX DFA US Large Company Portfolio | 51.41 | 7.42 | -593% | 24No options | $14.3B |
| SWISX Schwab Capital Trust - Schwab International Index Fund | 31.27 | 418.51 | +93% | 39No options | $14.5B |
| EQH Equitable Holdings, Inc. | 53.49 | 103.50 | +48% | 45Weak | $14.6B |
| OXLCN Oxford Lane Capital Corp. | 24.41 | 69.99 | +65% | 39No options | $11.8B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about CG
Is CG undervalued right now?
No: at 36.81 the stock trades 19% above the GLS average fair value of 30.81 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). The margin of safety is negative.
What is the Wheel Score of CG and what does it mean?
CG scores 45 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for CG?
30.81 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 7 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does The Carlyle Group Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (before the open), 19 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does CG have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 306 listed contracts with 114,710 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 51% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.