Stock fact sheet · data as of
The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. (CHEF): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Consumer Defensive · Food Distribution · United States · High Growth
Is CHEF undervalued?
CHEF closed at 114.27 on 16 Oct 2026, more than 30% above the GLS average fair value of 73.85. Only 2 of the 8 models that produced a value sit above the price. By our models the shares are priced well beyond what the filed earnings, cash flow and book value support; the Sunday Scan drops names like this at the "below fair value" rule.
The 8 models disagree widely: EPV gives 26.25 while GLS Growth gives 144.62. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files CHEF under High Growth: revenue and earnings growing fast enough that the growth-based models carry the valuation.
Nine valuation models for CHEF
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 32.22 | -72% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 29.75 | -74% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 98.28 | -14% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 40.22 | -65% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 144.62 | +27% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 91.51 | -20% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 127.93 | +12% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 26.25 | -77% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -11.12 | -110% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 122.50 | +7% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
On financial health CHEF scores 7/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is low at 4.5 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 4.1%, ROE 12.0%, ROA 3.6% - with debt at 1.95 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 2.7%.
The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Center Of The Plate Product 39%, Dry Goods Product 16%, Produce 14% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | 4.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 4.5 / 10 | ROE | 12.0% |
| Debt / equity | 1.95 | ROA | 3.6% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 2.7% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 57: Fair
CHEF scores 57 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Fair band, 50-64): a usable but unremarkable fit for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 0/25, Health 16/20, Moat 7/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 15/20. Value (0/25) is where the points are missing.
Implied volatility is 46% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 2,855 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 631k shares a day on a market cap of $4.7B, with a beta of 1.44 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 15 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -55% margin of safety | |
| Health | 16 / 20 | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Moat | 7 / 15 | moat 4.5/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 46% | |
| Stability | 15 / 20 | 631k shares/day, $4.7B cap, beta 1.44 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. reports earnings on 28 Oct 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Food Distribution
The 9 companies below are the closest to The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. by market cap within the Food Distribution industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNFI United Natural Foods, Inc. | 47.68 | 48.26 | +1% | 71Good | $2.9B |
| PFGC Performance Food Group Co | 95.08 | 92.23 | -3% | 74Good | $14.9B |
| AVO Mission Produce, Inc. | 12.08 | 1.33 | -806% | 49Weak | $1.1B |
| USFD US Foods Holding Corp. | 98.45 | 91.62 | -7% | 73Good | $21.3B |
| SYY Sysco Corporation | 80.97 | 55.28 | -46% | 54Fair | $39.8B |
| HFFG HF Foods Group Inc. | 1.55 | 0.5468 | -183% | 23Weak | $84M |
| DIT AMCON Distributing Company | 60.00 | 178.05 | +66% | 39No options | $59M |
| MTEX Mannatech, Incorporated | 7.13 | 12.81 | +44% | 39No options | $14M |
| IVFH Innovative Food Holdings, Inc. | 0.1400 | 0.1683 | +17% | 39No options | $8M |
⚖ Compare CHEF with 7 of them All Consumer Defensive stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about CHEF
Is CHEF undervalued right now?
No: at 114.27 the stock trades 55% above the GLS average fair value of 73.85 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of CHEF and what does it mean?
CHEF scores 57 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for CHEF?
73.85 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 28 Oct 2026 (before the open), 12 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does CHEF have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 232 listed contracts with 2,855 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 46% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.