Stock fact sheet · data as of
US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Consumer Defensive · Food Distribution · United States · Blend
Is USFD undervalued?
USFD closed at 98.45 on 16 Oct 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 91.62 - 7.4% above fair value, which our screens read as "fairly priced". 5 of 8 models are above the current price. There is no discount to lean on here, so the margin of safety is not the reason to look at the stock.
The 8 models disagree widely: EPV gives 37.00 while Payback Time gives 138.11. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files USFD under Blend.
Nine valuation models for USFD
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 105.39 | +7% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 38.30 | -61% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 135.81 | +38% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 55.29 | -44% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 103.61 | +5% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 119.48 | +21% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 138.11 | +40% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 37.00 | -62% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -25.29 | -126% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 117.00 | +19% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - USFD passes 6 of the nine Piotroski tests, which passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is 7.0 out of 10: a ten-year record that is consistent in some of the metrics the score tracks (revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, returns on capital) and patchy in others.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 6.7%, ROE 15.7%, ROA 4.8% - with debt at 1.33 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 4.4%.
US Foods Holding Corp. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Product One 36%, Product Two 17%, Product Three 17% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 2/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 6.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 7.0 / 10 | ROE | 15.7% |
| Debt / equity | 1.33 | ROA | 4.8% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 4.4% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 2 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 73: Good
USFD scores 73 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Good band, 65-79). The score blends the margin of safety (Value, 9/25), Piotroski health (13/20), the GLS moat (11/15), the option premium on offer (20/20) and how easily the stock trades (20/20). Value (9/25) is the part holding the score back.
Implied volatility is 36% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 6,561 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 2.0M shares a day on a market cap of $21.3B, with a beta of 0.86; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 9 / 25 | -7% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 11 / 15 | moat 7.0/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 36% | |
| Stability | 20 / 20 | 2.0M shares/day, $21.3B cap, beta 0.86 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 5 Nov 2026 (before the open), 20 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Food Distribution
The 9 companies below are the closest to US Foods Holding Corp. by market cap within the Food Distribution industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PFGC Performance Food Group Co | 95.08 | 92.23 | -3% | 74Good | $14.9B |
| SYY Sysco Corporation | 80.97 | 55.28 | -46% | 54Fair | $39.8B |
| CHEF The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. | 114.27 | 73.85 | -55% | 57Fair | $4.7B |
| UNFI United Natural Foods, Inc. | 47.68 | 48.26 | +1% | 71Good | $2.9B |
| AVO Mission Produce, Inc. | 12.08 | 1.33 | -806% | 49Weak | $1.1B |
| HFFG HF Foods Group Inc. | 1.55 | 0.5468 | -183% | 23Weak | $84M |
| DIT AMCON Distributing Company | 60.00 | 178.05 | +66% | 39No options | $59M |
| MTEX Mannatech, Incorporated | 7.13 | 12.81 | +44% | 39No options | $14M |
| IVFH Innovative Food Holdings, Inc. | 0.1400 | 0.1683 | +17% | 39No options | $8M |
⚖ Compare USFD with 7 of them All Consumer Defensive stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about USFD
Is USFD undervalued right now?
Not meaningfully: at 98.45 the stock trades within a few percent of the GLS average fair value of 91.62 (7.4% above fair value, data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of USFD and what does it mean?
USFD scores 73 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for USFD?
91.62 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does US Foods Holding Corp. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 5 Nov 2026 (before the open), 20 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does USFD have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 258 listed contracts with 6,561 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 36% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.