Stock fact sheet · data as of
CME Group Inc. (CME): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges · United States · Defensive
Is CME undervalued?
At 289.46 (close of 16 Oct 2026), CME trades 33% over the GLS average fair value of 216.97, with 3 of 9 models above the price. The stock earns none of the Wheel Score's Value points at this price. That is a statement about price against trailing fundamentals, not about the company's prospects - the Wall Street View and the Growth tab on the Quote page carry the forward numbers.
There is a wide gap between Lynch (95.82) and DCF (382.23). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files CME under Defensive: a low beta, a dividend and positive earnings.
Nine valuation models for CME
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 382.23 | +32% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 140.25 | -52% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 286.00 | -1% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 95.82 | -67% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 148.50 | -49% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 309.08 | +7% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 292.71 | +1% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 166.27 | -43% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 131.85 | -54% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -12.06 | -104% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 298.71 | +3% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
CME Group Inc. scores only 4 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, which fails the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. A reading this low means several of the basic tests - positive earnings, positive operating cash flow, falling debt, no new share issuance - are not met. A GLS Moat score of 8.0/10 puts CME among the more durable businesses we track: over ten years the metrics the score watches (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, ROIC) have mostly moved the right way, year after year.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 12.6%, ROE 14.1%, ROA 2.0% - with debt at 0.12 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 4.0%.
The dividend yield is 3.90% at a payout ratio of 95%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from clearing and transaction fees 79%, Market Data 14%, Other Revenue 7% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 1/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded insider buy was on 25 Sep 2026.
| Piotroski F-score | 4 / 9 | ROIC | 12.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 8.0 / 10 | ROE | 14.1% |
| Debt / equity | 0.12 | ROA | 2.0% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 4.0% | Payout ratio | 95% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 1 / 10 |
Wheel Score 56: Fair
A Wheel Score of 56 puts CME Group Inc. in the Fair band - below the 70 the Sunday Scan requires. Value 0/25, Health 9/20, Moat 12/15, Premium 15/20 and Stability 20/20; the weakest part is Value (0/25).
Implied volatility is 30% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (15 of 20 points). The option chain is deep: 51,560 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 2.1M shares a day on a market cap of $104.1B, with a beta of 0.27 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -33% margin of safety | |
| Health | 9 / 20 | Piotroski 4/9 | |
| Moat | 12 / 15 | moat 8.0/10 | |
| Premium | 15 / 20 | implied volatility 30% | |
| Stability | 20 / 20 | 2.1M shares/day, $104.1B cap, beta 0.27 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
CME Group Inc. reports earnings on 21 Oct 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges
The 12 companies below are the closest to CME Group Inc. by market cap within the Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPGI S&P Global Inc. | 408.57 | 302.68 | -35% | 61Fair | $120.4B |
| ICE Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. | 158.41 | 146.07 | -8% | 73Good | $88.9B |
| MCO Moody's Corporation | 483.69 | 357.14 | -35% | 64Fair | $83.8B |
| NDAQ Nasdaq, Inc. | 93.50 | 56.98 | -64% | 65Good | $52.3B |
| COIN Coinbase Global, Inc. | 183.81 | 101.69 | -81% | 43Weak | $48.5B |
| MSCI MSCI Inc. | 575.09 | 388.19 | -48% | 66Good | $41.8B |
| CBOE Cboe Global Markets, Inc. | 308.09 | 211.67 | -46% | 62Fair | $32.2B |
| TRU TransUnion | 66.94 | 86.04 | +22% | 86Prime | $12.8B |
| FDS FactSet Research Systems Inc. | 301.83 | 280.79 | -7% | 75Good | $10.7B |
| MORN Morningstar, Inc. | 209.24 | 276.68 | +24% | 82Prime | $7.8B |
| OTCM OTC Markets Group Inc. | 53.00 | 50.57 | -5% | 39No options | $635M |
| VALU Value Line, Inc. | 43.29 | 25.36 | -71% | 27No options | $406M |
⚖ Compare CME with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the same eight-rule screen, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about CME
Is CME undervalued right now?
No: at 289.46 the stock trades 33% above the GLS average fair value of 216.97 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of CME and what does it mean?
CME scores 56 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for CME?
216.97 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does CME Group Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 21 Oct 2026 (before the open), 5 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does CME have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 1,000 listed contracts with 51,560 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 30% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.