Stock fact sheet · data as of
CTO Realty Growth, Inc. (CTO): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Real Estate · REIT - Diversified · United States · High Yield Income
Is CTO undervalued?
CTO closed at 20.60 on 16 Oct 2026, 12% below the GLS average fair value of 23.29 from 9 models (4 of them above the price). That is a moderate margin of safety: the stock passes the "below fair value" rule of the Sunday Scan, and the Wheel Score gives it 17 of the 25 Value points.
The 9 models disagree widely: GLS Growth gives 0.1648 while DCF gives 86.72. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files CTO under High Yield Income: a dividend yield above 4%.
Nine valuation models for CTO
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 86.72 | +321% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 26.26 | +27% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 25.18 | +22% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 6.24 | -70% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 0.1648 | -99% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 18.53 | -10% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 6.79 | -67% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 22.37 | +9% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 17.34 | -16% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -12.93 | -163% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 24.67 | +20% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - CTO passes 6 of the nine Piotroski tests, which passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is low at 1.5 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 0.9%, ROE 1.8%, ROA 0.8% - with debt at 1.09 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 1.8%.
The dividend yield is high at 7.38% (payout ratio 111%) - a payout above 100% of earnings, which is not covered by profits. A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual. Revenue comes mainly from Income Properties 100% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 9/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 0.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 1.5 / 10 | ROE | 1.8% |
| Debt / equity | 1.09 | ROA | 0.8% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 1.8% | Payout ratio | 111% |
| Institutions | 9 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 61: Fair
CTO scores 61 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Fair band, 50-64): a usable but unremarkable fit for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 17/25, Health 13/20, Moat 2/15, Premium 18/20, Stability 10/20. Moat (2/15) is where the points are missing.
Implied volatility is 33% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (18 of 20 points). Chain open interest is thin - 773 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 296k shares a day on a market cap of $772M, with a beta of 0.63 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 10 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 17 / 25 | 12% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 2 / 15 | moat 1.5/10 | |
| Premium | 18 / 20 | implied volatility 33% | |
| Stability | 10 / 20 | 296k shares/day, $772M cap, beta 0.63 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
CTO Realty Growth, Inc. reports earnings on 27 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in REIT - Diversified
The 12 companies below are the closest to CTO Realty Growth, Inc. by market cap within the REIT - Diversified industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMRF CIM Real Estate Finance Trust, Inc. | 1.83 | 3.56 | +49% | 39No options | $796M |
| ESRT Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. | 4.73 | 5.15 | +8% | 69Good | $814M |
| SAFE Safehold Inc. | 11.55 | 16.42 | +30% | 73Good | $818M |
| JBGS JBG SMITH Properties | 11.08 | 8.93 | -24% | 45Weak | $649M |
| GOODN Gladstone Commercial Corp Pref | 20.04 | 19.49 | -3% | 39No options | $625M |
| GOOD Gladstone Commercial Corporation | 12.64 | 17.57 | +28% | 67Good | $612M |
| AHRT AH Realty Trust, Inc. | 5.97 | 20.83 | +71% | 45Weak | $573M |
| GOODO Gladstone Commercial Corporation | 17.91 | 19.13 | +6% | 39No options | $552M |
| SCCE Sachem Capital Corp. 6.00% Note | 24.50 | 19.47 | -26% | 18No options | $1.1B |
| OLP One Liberty Properties, Inc. | 22.13 | 22.47 | +1% | 56Fair | $483M |
| FISK Empire State Realty OP, L.P. | 4.51 | 13.38 | +66% | 39No options | $1.3B |
| ESBA Empire State Realty OP, L.P. | 4.67 | 12.91 | +64% | 39No options | $1.3B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about CTO
Is CTO undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, moderately: at 20.60 the stock trades 12% below the average fair value of 23.29 (data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of CTO and what does it mean?
CTO scores 61 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for CTO?
23.29 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does CTO Realty Growth, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 27 Oct 2026 (after the close), 11 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does CTO have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 80 listed contracts with 773 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 33% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.