Stock fact sheet · data as of
Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. (ESRT): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Real Estate · REIT - Diversified · United States · Blend
Is ESRT undervalued?
Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. (ESRT) closed at 4.73 on 16 Oct 2026, close to the GLS average fair value of 5.15 (8.2% below fair value). 2 of the 9 models that produced a number sit above the price, 7 below - the market and our models roughly agree. With little margin of safety either way, the case for or against the stock rests on the quality numbers and the option premium rather than on price.
The 9 models disagree widely: GLS Growth gives 0.1245 while DCF gives 21.83. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files ESRT under Blend.
Nine valuation models for ESRT
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 21.83 | +362% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 2.41 | -49% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 0.6861 | -85% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 0.1701 | -96% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 0.1245 | -97% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 16.57 | +250% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 2.04 | -57% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 2.06 | -56% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 0.4725 | -90% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -14.28 | -402% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 5.00 | +6% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - ESRT passes 6 of the nine Piotroski tests, which passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is low at 3.4 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 1.4%, ROE 4.5%, ROA 1.1% - with debt at 2.30 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 12.8%. Debt of 2.30 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
The dividend yield is 2.96% at a payout ratio of 388%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Real Estate, 89%, Observatory, 12% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded insider buy was on 7 Oct 2026.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 1.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 3.4 / 10 | ROE | 4.5% |
| Debt / equity | 2.30 | ROA | 1.1% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 12.8% | Payout ratio | 388% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 69: Good
ESRT scores 69 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Good band, 65-79). The score blends the margin of safety (Value, 16/25), Piotroski health (13/20), the GLS moat (5/15), the option premium on offer (20/20) and how easily the stock trades (15/20). Moat (5/15) is the part holding the score back.
Implied volatility is 53% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 4,261 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 4.9M shares a day on a market cap of $814M, with a beta of 1.42 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 15 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 16 / 25 | 8% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 5 / 15 | moat 3.4/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 53% | |
| Stability | 15 / 20 | 4.9M shares/day, $814M cap, beta 1.42 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 2 Nov 2026 (after the close), 17 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in REIT - Diversified
The 12 companies below are the closest to Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. by market cap within the REIT - Diversified industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAFE Safehold Inc. | 11.55 | 16.42 | +30% | 73Good | $818M |
| CMRF CIM Real Estate Finance Trust, Inc. | 1.83 | 3.56 | +49% | 39No options | $796M |
| CTO CTO Realty Growth, Inc. | 20.60 | 23.29 | +12% | 61Fair | $772M |
| JBGS JBG SMITH Properties | 11.08 | 8.93 | -24% | 45Weak | $649M |
| GOODN Gladstone Commercial Corp Pref | 20.04 | 19.49 | -3% | 39No options | $625M |
| GOOD Gladstone Commercial Corporation | 12.64 | 17.57 | +28% | 67Good | $612M |
| SCCE Sachem Capital Corp. 6.00% Note | 24.50 | 19.47 | -26% | 18No options | $1.1B |
| AHRT AH Realty Trust, Inc. | 5.97 | 20.83 | +71% | 45Weak | $573M |
| GOODO Gladstone Commercial Corporation | 17.91 | 19.13 | +6% | 39No options | $552M |
| FISK Empire State Realty OP, L.P. | 4.51 | 13.38 | +66% | 39No options | $1.3B |
| ESBA Empire State Realty OP, L.P. | 4.67 | 12.91 | +64% | 39No options | $1.3B |
| OGCP Empire State Realty OP, L.P. | 4.70 | 6.00 | +22% | 39No options | $1.3B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about ESRT
Is ESRT undervalued right now?
Not meaningfully: at 4.73 the stock trades within a few percent of the GLS average fair value of 5.15 (8.2% below fair value, data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of ESRT and what does it mean?
ESRT scores 69 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for ESRT?
5.15 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 2 Nov 2026 (after the close), 17 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does ESRT have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 34 listed contracts with 4,261 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 53% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.