Stock fact sheet · data as of
D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction · United States · Value
Is DHI undervalued?
DHI has a margin of safety of 53%: the stock closed at 139.55 on 16 Oct 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 298.13. 6 of the 9 valuation models that produced a number sit above the price. Our screens treat a discount this large as a strong starting point for a cash-secured put, not as a verdict - the fair value is a model output, and a wide gap can mean the models are missing something the market knows.
There is a wide gap between DDM (26.49) and GLS Growth (650.08). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files DHI under Value: positive earnings at a P/E of 18 or less.
Nine valuation models for DHI
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 118.93 | -15% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 140.69 | +1% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 607.39 | +335% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 265.47 | +90% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 650.08 | +366% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 300.42 | +115% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 455.73 | +227% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 26.49 | -81% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 117.99 | -15% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 83.71 | -40% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 155.43 | +11% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
D.R. Horton, Inc. scores 6 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. On durability DHI scores 7.4/10 on the GLS Moat - a middle reading; the Scorecard on the Quote page's Financials tab shows which ten-year lines are steady and which are not.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 11.9%, ROE 14.8%, ROA 10.1% - with debt at 0.25 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 8.5%.
The dividend yield is 1.29% with a payout ratio of 17% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business. Revenue comes mainly from Homebuilding 91%, Forestar Group 4%, Rental 3% (quarter Q3 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 6/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded Congressional buy was on 25 Sep 2026.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 11.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 7.4 / 10 | ROE | 14.8% |
| Debt / equity | 0.25 | ROA | 10.1% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 8.5% | Payout ratio | 17% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 6 / 10 |
Wheel Score 89: Prime
With a Wheel Score of 89, D.R. Horton, Inc. sits in the Prime band - price, quality and premium all line up for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 25/25, Health 13/20, Moat 11/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 19/20. A high score is a ranking, not a signal: it says nothing about timing, the earnings date or your position size.
Implied volatility is 42% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 47,146 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 3.2M shares a day on a market cap of $39.0B, with a beta of 1.35 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 19 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 53% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 11 / 15 | moat 7.4/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 42% | |
| Stability | 19 / 20 | 3.2M shares/day, $39.0B cap, beta 1.35 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
D.R. Horton, Inc. reports earnings on 27 Oct 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Residential Construction
The 12 companies below are the closest to D.R. Horton, Inc. by market cap within the Residential Construction industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHM PulteGroup, Inc. | 109.35 | 197.70 | +45% | 88Prime | $20.8B |
| LEN Lennar Corporation | 77.69 | 92.40 | +16% | 79Good | $18.5B |
| LEN-B Lennar Corporation | 76.93 | 90.39 | +15% | 39No options | $18.5B |
| NVR NVR, Inc. | 5,940.83 | 6,229.48 | +5% | 39No options | $15.9B |
| TOL Toll Brothers, Inc. | 130.41 | 199.69 | +35% | 85Prime | $12.0B |
| IBP Installed Building Products, Inc. | 187.94 | 112.54 | -67% | 57Fair | $5.0B |
| SKY Champion Homes, Inc. | 75.90 | 80.03 | +5% | 76Good | $4.1B |
| CVCO Cavco Industries, Inc. | 535.60 | 530.46 | -1% | 67Good | $4.1B |
| MTH Meritage Homes Corporation | 60.28 | 101.28 | +40% | 80Prime | $3.9B |
| MHO M/I Homes, Inc. | 126.02 | 176.77 | +29% | 76Good | $3.2B |
| GRBK Green Brick Partners, Inc. | 61.98 | 91.90 | +33% | 79Good | $2.7B |
| KBH KB Home | 43.65 | 62.28 | +30% | 80Prime | $2.7B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about DHI
Is DHI undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 139.55 the stock is 53% below the average fair value of 298.13 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of DHI and what does it mean?
DHI scores 89 out of 100 (Prime). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for DHI?
298.13 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does D.R. Horton, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 27 Oct 2026 (before the open), 11 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does DHI have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 1,000 listed contracts with 47,146 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 42% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.