Stock fact sheet · data as of
PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction · United States · Value
Is PHM undervalued?
PHM has a margin of safety of 45%: the stock closed at 109.35 on 16 Oct 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 197.70. 8 of the 9 valuation models that produced a number sit above the price. Our screens treat a discount this large as a strong starting point for a cash-secured put, not as a verdict - the fair value is a model output, and a wide gap can mean the models are missing something the market knows.
There is a wide gap between DDM (15.30) and GLS Growth (465.72). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files PHM under Value: positive earnings at a P/E of 18 or less.
Nine valuation models for PHM
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 147.60 | +35% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 123.24 | +13% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 298.14 | +173% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 110.19 | +1% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 465.72 | +326% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 222.73 | +104% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 285.88 | +161% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 15.30 | -86% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 110.49 | +1% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 53.22 | -51% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 139.64 | +28% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
PulteGroup, Inc. scores 5 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. A GLS Moat score of 8.1/10 puts PHM among the more durable businesses we track: over ten years the metrics the score watches (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, ROIC) have mostly moved the right way, year after year.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 14.4%, ROE 17.1%, ROA 12.3% - with debt at 0.19 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 7.3%.
The dividend yield is 0.95% with a payout ratio of 10% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business. Revenue comes mainly from Home Building 98%, Financial Service 2% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 10/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | 14.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 8.1 / 10 | ROE | 17.1% |
| Debt / equity | 0.19 | ROA | 12.3% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 7.3% | Payout ratio | 10% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 10 / 10 |
Wheel Score 88: Prime
With a Wheel Score of 88, PulteGroup, Inc. sits in the Prime band - price, quality and premium all line up for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 25/25, Health 11/20, Moat 12/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 20/20. A high score is a ranking, not a signal: it says nothing about timing, the earnings date or your position size.
Implied volatility is 42% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 20,101 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 2.2M shares a day on a market cap of $20.8B, with a beta of 1.16; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 45% margin of safety | |
| Health | 11 / 20 | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Moat | 12 / 15 | moat 8.1/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 42% | |
| Stability | 20 / 20 | 2.2M shares/day, $20.8B cap, beta 1.16 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
PulteGroup, Inc. reports earnings on 20 Oct 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Residential Construction
The 12 companies below are the closest to PulteGroup, Inc. by market cap within the Residential Construction industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEN Lennar Corporation | 77.69 | 92.40 | +16% | 79Good | $18.5B |
| LEN-B Lennar Corporation | 76.93 | 90.39 | +15% | 39No options | $18.5B |
| NVR NVR, Inc. | 5,940.83 | 6,229.48 | +5% | 39No options | $15.9B |
| TOL Toll Brothers, Inc. | 130.41 | 199.69 | +35% | 85Prime | $12.0B |
| DHI D.R. Horton, Inc. | 139.55 | 298.13 | +53% | 89Prime | $39.0B |
| IBP Installed Building Products, Inc. | 187.94 | 112.54 | -67% | 57Fair | $5.0B |
| SKY Champion Homes, Inc. | 75.90 | 80.03 | +5% | 76Good | $4.1B |
| CVCO Cavco Industries, Inc. | 535.60 | 530.46 | -1% | 67Good | $4.1B |
| MTH Meritage Homes Corporation | 60.28 | 101.28 | +40% | 80Prime | $3.9B |
| MHO M/I Homes, Inc. | 126.02 | 176.77 | +29% | 76Good | $3.2B |
| GRBK Green Brick Partners, Inc. | 61.98 | 91.90 | +33% | 79Good | $2.7B |
| KBH KB Home | 43.65 | 62.28 | +30% | 80Prime | $2.7B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about PHM
Is PHM undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 109.35 the stock is 45% below the average fair value of 197.70 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of PHM and what does it mean?
PHM scores 88 out of 100 (Prime). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for PHM?
197.70 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does PulteGroup, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 20 Oct 2026 (before the open), 4 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does PHM have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 1,000 listed contracts with 20,101 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 42% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.