Stock fact sheet · data as of
Ecopetrol S.A. (EC): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol EC · Energy · Oil & Gas Integrated · Colombia · ADR · Value Income
EC is an American depositary share (ADR): the US listing of Ecopetrol S.A., whose own shares trade on its home exchange. It trades in dollars during US hours; currency moves and the home country's rules also affect it, and the depositary bank charges a small yearly fee.
Is EC undervalued?
Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) closed at 15.92 on 5 Nov 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 9 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 36.03, which puts the price 56% below it. 6 of the 9 models value the shares above the current price. A gap this wide is rare in our universe of ~7,400 US stocks and is exactly what the Value part of the Wheel Score rewards; it is also where the question "why is it this cheap?" matters most.
The 9 models disagree widely: GLS Growth gives 5.53 while DCF gives 113.09. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
Ranked against every other company we cover, EC is clearly cheaper than it is fast-growing, so the nightly engine files it under Value (value score 78, growth score 11, out of 100). It also carries the Income tag (Income = a dividend yield of 4% or more).
Nine valuation models for EC
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 113.09 | +610% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 23.17 | +46% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 30.47 | +91% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 7.56 | -53% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 5.53 | -65% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 73.32 | +361% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 40.60 | +155% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 9.55 | -40% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 20.99 | +32% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -18.31 | -215% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 17.57 | +10% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
On financial health EC scores 8/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is 6.5 out of 10: a record that is solid on some of the four parts the score weighs (returns on capital, pricing power, lasting growth, balance sheet) and weaker on others.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 4.4%, ROE 10.0%, ROA 3.0% - with debt at 1.30 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 13.3%.
The dividend yield is high at 4.08% (payout ratio 52%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual. Revenue comes mainly from Crude oil 100% (fiscal year FY2025).
Institutional ownership scores 1/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 8 / 9 | ROIC | 4.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 6.5 / 10 | ROE | 10.0% |
| Debt / equity | 1.30 | ROA | 3.0% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 13.3% | Payout ratio | 52% |
| Institutions | 1 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 54: Fair
EC scores 54 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Fair band, 50-69) because it fails filter 5, can repay its debt - 3.9 years to repay its debt (over 3). A stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to reach 70. Otherwise the parts read: value strong, premium strong, moat good, health strong, red flags fair, option trading weak, stability strong.
Implied volatility is 44% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% sweet spot the Wheel Score rewards most: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 10,479 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 3.4M shares a day on a market cap of $32.7B, with a beta of 0.55 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that strong.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Passes | Listed options with 1,000+ contracts of open interest and 100+ traded a day |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Passes | Profitable over the last twelve months - not a speculative stock, fund or note |
| 3 | Below fair value | Passes | Trading below the nine-model average fair value (margin of safety above 0) |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Passes | Piotroski F-score 6 or more out of 9 (a company with no score on file passes) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Fails | 3.9 years to repay its debt (over 3) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Strong | 56% below fair value | |
| Premium | Strong | implied volatility 44% | |
| Moat | Good | moat 6.5/10 | |
| Health | Strong | Piotroski 8/9 | |
| Red Flags | Fair | Red Flags score 70/100 | |
| Option trading | Weak | 400 contracts a day, 10,479 open interest | |
| Stability | Strong | beta 0.55, $32.7B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Ecopetrol S.A. reports earnings on 10 Nov 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Analysts upgraded EC 1 time in the last 30 days with no downgrades; the latest action was an upgrade by Jefferies on 29 Oct 2026.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Oil & Gas Integrated
The 12 companies below are the closest to Ecopetrol S.A. by market cap within the Oil & Gas Integrated industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVE Cenovus Energy Inc. | 28.39 | 32.28 | +12% | 78Good | $52.4B |
| IMO Imperial Oil Limited | 127.47 | 114.14 | -12% | 41Weak | $61.6B |
| YPF YPF Sociedad Anónima | 41.61 | 330,391.76 | +100% | 86Prime | $16.3B |
| E Eni S.p.A. | 56.54 | 70.14 | +19% | 78Good | $84.1B |
| SU Suncor Energy Inc. | 72.04 | 92.61 | +22% | 89Prime | $85.1B |
| EQNR Equinor ASA | 42.80 | 95.79 | +55% | 92Prime | $103.1B |
| BP BP p.l.c. | 45.61 | 92.68 | +51% | 93Prime | $119.6B |
| PBR Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras | 19.61 | 118.96 | +84% | 93Prime | $126.4B |
| NFG National Fuel Gas Company | 76.54 | 69.87 | -10% | 35Weak | $7.3B |
| TTE TotalEnergies SE | 90.46 | 142.61 | +37% | 82Good | $201.9B |
| SHEL Shell plc | 101.86 | 160.60 | +37% | 87Prime | $291.8B |
| TGS Transportadora de Gas del Sur S.A. | 23.25 | 63.00 | +63% | 53Fair | $3.5B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about EC
Is EC undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 15.92 the stock is 56% below the average fair value of 36.03 (data as of 5 Nov 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of EC and what does it mean?
EC scores 54 out of 100 (Fair) - it fails Wheel Trade Filter 5. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for EC?
36.03 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Ecopetrol S.A. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 10 Nov 2026 (after the close), 5 days from the data date of 5 Nov 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does EC have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 56 listed contracts with 10,479 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 44% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.
Is EC an ADR?
Yes. EC is an American depositary share (ADR): the US listing of Ecopetrol S.A., whose own shares trade on its home exchange. It trades in dollars during US hours; currency moves and the home country's rules also affect it, and the depositary bank charges a small yearly fee.