Stock fact sheet · data as of
National Fuel Gas Company (NFG): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Energy · Oil & Gas Integrated · United States · Defensive
Is NFG undervalued?
National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) closed at 78.38 on 16 Oct 2026, 19% above the GLS average fair value of 65.86. Only 3 of the 8 models that produced a number value the shares above the current price. The margin of safety is negative, so the stock fails the "below fair value" rule of the Sunday Scan; a premium of this size is common for companies whose growth the models are conservative about.
There is a wide gap between Lynch (8.13) and 10 Cap (163.75). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files NFG under Defensive: a low beta, a dividend and positive earnings.
Nine valuation models for NFG
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | 82.38 | +5% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 75.78 | -3% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 8.13 | -90% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 35.55 | -55% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 163.75 | +109% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 49.13 | -37% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 32.08 | -59% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 80.05 | +2% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -54.86 | -170% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 88.50 | +13% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
National Fuel Gas Company scores 6 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. On durability NFG scores 5.7/10 on the GLS Moat - a middle reading; the Scorecard on the Quote page's Financials tab shows which ten-year lines are steady and which are not.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 8.7%, ROE 16.8%, ROA 5.9% - with debt at 0.92 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 3.0%.
The dividend yield is 2.78% at a payout ratio of 29%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from All Other 62%, Utility 31%, Pipeline And Storage 6% (quarter Q3 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 10/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded insider buy was on 16 Sep 2026.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 8.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 5.7 / 10 | ROE | 16.8% |
| Debt / equity | 0.92 | ROA | 5.9% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 3.0% | Payout ratio | 29% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 10 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 65: Good
With a Wheel Score of 65 - the Good band - National Fuel Gas Company falls just short of the Sunday Scan's "70 or higher" rule. The parts: Value 5/25, Health 13/20, Moat 9/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 18/20; Value (5/25) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 38% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 10,359 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 1.3M shares a day on a market cap of $7.4B, with a beta of 0.41 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 18 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 5 / 25 | -19% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 9 / 15 | moat 5.7/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 38% | |
| Stability | 18 / 20 | 1.3M shares/day, $7.4B cap, beta 0.41 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (after the close), 19 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Oil & Gas Integrated
The 12 companies below are the closest to National Fuel Gas Company by market cap within the Oil & Gas Integrated industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TGS Transportadora de Gas del Sur S.A. | 26.01 | 10,358.99 | +100% | 76Good | $3.9B |
| YPF YPF Sociedad Anónima | 52.25 | 1,397,751.10 | +100% | 45Weak | $20.5B |
| EC Ecopetrol S.A. | 17.70 | 22,902.35 | +100% | 86Prime | $36.4B |
| CVE Cenovus Energy Inc. | 31.97 | 39.13 | +18% | 76Good | $59.0B |
| IMO Imperial Oil Limited | 129.59 | 112.69 | -15% | 65Good | $62.7B |
| E Eni S.p.A. | 57.44 | 49.74 | -15% | 60Fair | $83.8B |
| SU Suncor Energy Inc. | 75.89 | 92.02 | +18% | 83Prime | $89.6B |
| EQNR Equinor ASA | 44.92 | 81.52 | +45% | 88Prime | $107.4B |
| BP BP p.l.c. | 48.44 | 69.46 | +30% | 89Prime | $127.0B |
| PBR Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras | 25.94 | 115.09 | +77% | 90Prime | $167.2B |
| TTE TotalEnergies SE | 89.64 | 115.53 | +22% | 74Good | $199.6B |
| SHEL Shell plc | 103.58 | 134.16 | +23% | 82Prime | $295.1B |
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A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the same eight-rule screen, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about NFG
Is NFG undervalued right now?
No: at 78.38 the stock trades 19% above the GLS average fair value of 65.86 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). The margin of safety is negative.
What is the Wheel Score of NFG and what does it mean?
NFG scores 65 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for NFG?
65.86 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does National Fuel Gas Company report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (after the close), 19 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does NFG have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 170 listed contracts with 10,359 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 38% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.