Stock fact sheet · data as of
National Fuel Gas Company (NFG): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol NFG · Energy · Oil & Gas Integrated · United States · Blend
Is NFG undervalued?
National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) closed at 76.54 on 5 Nov 2026, close to the GLS average fair value of 69.87 (9.5% above fair value). 4 of the 8 models that produced a number sit above the price, 4 below - the market and our models roughly agree. With little margin of safety either way, the case for or against the stock rests on the quality numbers and the option premium rather than on price.
There is a wide gap between Lynch (17.85) and 10 Cap (163.75). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
Ranked against every other company we cover, neither cheapness nor growth clearly wins for NFG, so the nightly engine files it under Blend (value score 51, growth score 55, out of 100).
Nine valuation models for NFG
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | 82.38 | +8% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 94.79 | +24% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 17.85 | -77% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 38.32 | -50% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 163.75 | +114% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 49.77 | -35% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 32.08 | -58% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 80.05 | +5% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -54.86 | -172% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 88.50 | +16% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
National Fuel Gas Company scores 6 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that passes the "Piotroski 6 or more" Wheel Trade Filter. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. A GLS Moat score of 4.6/10 is a weak reading: the accounts do not show returns and margins that competitors have been unable to wear down, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 8.7%, ROE 16.8%, ROA 5.9% - with debt at 0.92 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 3.1%.
The dividend yield is 2.85% at a payout ratio of 29%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from All Other 62%, Utility 31%, Pipeline And Storage 6% (quarter Q3 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 10/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded insider buy was on 16 Sep 2026.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 8.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 4.6 / 10 | ROE | 16.8% |
| Debt / equity | 0.92 | ROA | 5.9% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 3.1% | Payout ratio | 29% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 10 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 35: Weak
With a Wheel Score of 35 National Fuel Gas Company sits in the Weak band. It fails filter 3, below fair value - trades 10% above our fair value; Value (weak) is its weakest part.
Implied volatility is 32% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: enough to pass the 25-80% Wheel Trade Filter, but under the 35-60% sweet spot the score rewards most. Chain open interest is 14,568 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 2.4M shares a day on a market cap of $7.3B, with a beta of 0.37 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that good.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Passes | Listed options with 1,000+ contracts of open interest and 100+ traded a day |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Passes | Profitable over the last twelve months - not a speculative stock, fund or note |
| 3 | Below fair value | Fails | trades 10% above our fair value |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Passes | Piotroski F-score 6 or more out of 9 (a company with no score on file passes) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Passes | Long-term debt repaid from 3 years of operating cash flow or less (6 for real estate and utilities; banks and insurers are not judged on it) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Weak | 10% above fair value | |
| Premium | Good | implied volatility 32% | |
| Moat | Fair | moat 4.6/10 | |
| Health | Good | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Red Flags | Good | Red Flags score 82/100 | |
| Option trading | Fair | 2,376 contracts a day, 14,568 open interest | |
| Stability | Good | beta 0.37, $7.3B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 27 Jan 2027, 83 days away - outside the window of a 30-45-day put sold today.
No analyst upgrades or downgrades were recorded in the last 30 days.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Oil & Gas Integrated
The 12 companies below are the closest to National Fuel Gas Company by market cap within the Oil & Gas Integrated industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TGS Transportadora de Gas del Sur S.A. | 23.25 | 63.00 | +63% | 53Fair | $3.5B |
| YPF YPF Sociedad Anónima | 41.61 | 330,391.76 | +100% | 86Prime | $16.3B |
| EC Ecopetrol S.A. | 15.92 | 36.03 | +56% | 54Fair | $32.7B |
| CVE Cenovus Energy Inc. | 28.39 | 32.28 | +12% | 78Good | $52.4B |
| IMO Imperial Oil Limited | 127.47 | 114.14 | -12% | 41Weak | $61.6B |
| E Eni S.p.A. | 56.54 | 70.14 | +19% | 78Good | $84.1B |
| SU Suncor Energy Inc. | 72.04 | 92.61 | +22% | 89Prime | $85.1B |
| EQNR Equinor ASA | 42.80 | 95.79 | +55% | 92Prime | $103.1B |
| BP BP p.l.c. | 45.61 | 92.68 | +51% | 93Prime | $119.6B |
| PBR Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras | 19.61 | 118.96 | +84% | 93Prime | $126.4B |
| TTE TotalEnergies SE | 90.46 | 142.61 | +37% | 82Good | $201.9B |
| SHEL Shell plc | 101.86 | 160.60 | +37% | 87Prime | $291.8B |
Scan the whole market the same way
A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the top 10 stocks that pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about NFG
Is NFG undervalued right now?
Not meaningfully: at 76.54 the stock trades within a few percent of the GLS average fair value of 69.87 (9.5% above fair value, data as of 5 Nov 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of NFG and what does it mean?
NFG scores 35 out of 100 (Weak) - it fails Wheel Trade Filter 3. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for NFG?
69.87 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does National Fuel Gas Company report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 27 Jan 2027, 83 days from the data date of 5 Nov 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does NFG have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 78 listed contracts with 14,568 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 32% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.