Expensify, Inc. (EXFY): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is EXFY undervalued?

Expensify, Inc. (EXFY) closed at 2.38 on 5 Nov 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 1 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 3.95, which puts the price 40% below it. 1 of the 1 models value the shares above the current price. A gap this wide is rare in our universe of ~7,400 US stocks and is exactly what the Value part of the Wheel Score rewards; it is also where the question "why is it this cheap?" matters most.

Only 1 of the nine models produced a value (10 Cap); the others need a dividend, positive free cash flow or positive book value the company does not have yet, so the average rests on a narrow base.

The nightly engine files EXFY under Speculative - it is losing money or its Piotroski health score is 3 or lower - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.

Nine valuation models for EXFY

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

Financial health is weak: EXFY passes 3 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our scans drop the stock at the health filter; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. The GLS Moat score is low at 3.7 out of 10: returns on capital, margins or the balance sheet have not shown a lasting edge yet - often a young company, a thin-margin business or one that has only recently turned profitable.

Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -15.4%, ROE -16.1%, ROA -11.5% - with debt at 0.04 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 5.8%.

Expensify, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Subscription Fees 84%, Interchange 16%, Product and Service, Other 0% (quarter Q2 FY2026).

Institutional ownership scores 3/10, insider activity 9/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.

Wheel Score 25: Weak

EXFY scores 25 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50): it fails filter 1, options that actually trade - options too quiet (1,137 open interest, 47 a day); and filter 2, a real business, not a gamble - speculative (a loss, or a weak Piotroski score); and filter 4, financially healthy - Piotroski 3/9 (under 6); and filter 7, a premium worth selling - implied volatility 142% (over 80%); and filter 8, big enough - market cap $230M (under $1.0B); and filter 9, not a penny stock - price 2.38 (under $5), and the parts are thin too - value strong, premium weak, moat fair, health weak, red flags weak, option trading weak, stability weak. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.

Implied volatility is 142%, above the 80% ceiling of the Wheel Trade Filter on premium. The premium looks generous, but moves of that size can blow through any strike. Chain open interest is thin - 1,137 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.

Volume runs at 318k shares a day on a market cap of $230M, with a beta of 1.72 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that weak.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

Expensify, Inc. reports earnings on 5 Nov 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

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