Stock fact sheet · data as of
Ford Motor Company (F): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Consumer Cyclical · Auto - Manufacturers · United States · Speculative / Distressed
Is F undervalued?
At 12.31 (close of 16 Oct 2026), F trades 32% below the GLS average fair value of 18.04. That average comes from 2 models run on the latest filings, and 1 of them land above the current price. Margins of safety over 30% are the exception rather than the rule across the ~7,400 stocks we value each night, so the number earns Ford Motor Company the full Value points in the Wheel Score - and a closer look at what the market is pricing in.
Only 2 of the nine models produced a value (10 Cap, DDM); the others need a dividend, positive free cash flow or positive book value the company does not have yet, so the average rests on a narrow base.
The nightly engine files F under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for F
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | 27.25 | +121% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 8.83 | -28% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -32.52 | -364% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 15.79 | +28% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is weak: F passes 4 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our screens drop the stock at the health rule; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. The GLS Moat score is low at 2.7 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -4.0%, ROE -22.8%, ROA -2.8% - with debt at 4.66 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 14.8%. Debt of 4.66 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
The dividend yield is high at 4.87% (payout ratio -32%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual. Revenue comes mainly from Company excluding Ford Credit 93%, Ford Credit 7% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 9/10, insider activity 10/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded Congressional buy was on 10 Aug 2026.
| Piotroski F-score | 4 / 9 | ROIC | -4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 2.7 / 10 | ROE | -22.8% |
| Debt / equity | 4.66 | ROA | -2.8% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 14.8% | Payout ratio | -32% |
| Institutions | 9 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 10 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 45: Weak
F scores 45 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50), capped at 45 because the engine files it as Speculative / Distressed. Value 25/25, Health 9/20, Moat 4/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 18/20. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 41% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. The option chain is deep: 1,805,520 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 37.3M shares a day on a market cap of $49.1B, with a beta of 1.94 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 18 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 32% margin of safety | |
| Health | 9 / 20 | Piotroski 4/9 | |
| Moat | 4 / 15 | moat 2.7/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 41% | |
| Stability | 18 / 20 | 37.3M shares/day, $49.1B cap, beta 1.94 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Ford Motor Company reports earnings on 22 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Auto - Manufacturers
The 12 companies below are the closest to Ford Motor Company by market cap within the Auto - Manufacturers industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HMC Honda Motor Co., Ltd. | 34.06 | 3,477.83 | +99% | 45Weak | $44.2B |
| RACE Ferrari N.V. | 387.35 | 220.48 | -76% | 65Good | $67.9B |
| GM General Motors Company | 83.66 | 94.34 | +11% | 75Good | $73.4B |
| RIVN Rivian Automotive, Inc. | 12.95 | - | - | 45Weak | $18.7B |
| STLA Stellantis N.V. | 4.27 | - | - | 45Weak | $12.4B |
| LI Li Auto Inc. | 11.46 | 74.75 | +85% | 45Weak | $11.5B |
| TM Toyota Motor Corporation | 188.60 | 4,083.88 | +95% | 71Good | $223.3B |
| XPEV XPeng Inc. | 9.42 | 124.82 | +92% | 45Weak | $8.9B |
| NIO NIO Inc. | 3.50 | - | - | 45Weak | $8.3B |
| VFS VinFast Auto Ltd. | 3.02 | - | - | 45Weak | $7.1B |
| HOG Harley-Davidson, Inc. | 27.59 | 48.04 | +43% | 81Prime | $2.9B |
| BLBD Blue Bird Corporation | 57.51 | 199.12 | +71% | 78Good | $1.8B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about F
Is F undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 12.31 the stock is 32% below the average fair value of 18.04 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of F and what does it mean?
F scores 45 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for F?
18.04 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 2 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Ford Motor Company report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 22 Oct 2026 (after the close), 6 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does F have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 812 listed contracts with 1,805,520 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 41% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.