Stock fact sheet · data as of
Toyota Motor Corporation (TM): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Consumer Cyclical · Auto - Manufacturers · Japan · ADR · Defensive
Is TM undervalued?
Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) closed at 188.60 on 16 Oct 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 8 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 4,083.88, which puts the price 95% below it. 7 of the 8 models value the shares above the current price. A gap this wide is rare in our universe of ~7,400 US stocks and is exactly what the Value part of the Wheel Score rewards; it is also where the question "why is it this cheap?" matters most.
There is a wide gap between DCF (82.89) and DDM (14,714.29). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files TM under Defensive: a low beta, a dividend and positive earnings.
Nine valuation models for TM
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 82.89 | -56% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 5,012.83 | +2558% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 683.46 | +262% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 252.55 | +34% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 927.67 | +392% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 10,743.89 | +5597% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 14,714.29 | +7702% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 253.46 | +34% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -18,385.82 | -9849% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 179.41 | -5% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Toyota Motor Corporation scores 5 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. On durability TM scores 6.0/10 on the GLS Moat - a middle reading; the Scorecard on the Quote page's Financials tab shows which ten-year lines are steady and which are not.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 4.8%, ROE 9.9%, ROA 3.8% - with debt at 1.08 times equity and negative free cash flow.
The dividend yield is 3.30% at a payout ratio of 28%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Automotive 88%, Financial services 9%, All other 3% (fiscal year FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 1/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | 4.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 6.0 / 10 | ROE | 9.9% |
| Debt / equity | 1.08 | ROA | 3.8% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -2.3% | Payout ratio | 28% |
| Institutions | 1 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 71: Good
With a Wheel Score of 71 - the Good band - Toyota Motor Corporation clears the Sunday Scan's "70 or higher" rule. The parts: Value 25/25, Health 11/20, Moat 9/15, Premium 10/20, Stability 15/20; Premium (10/20) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 25% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (10 of 20 points). Chain open interest is 16,250 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 350k shares a day on a market cap of $223.3B, with a beta of 0.34 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 15 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 95% margin of safety | |
| Health | 11 / 20 | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Moat | 9 / 15 | moat 6.0/10 | |
| Premium | 10 / 20 | implied volatility 25% | |
| Stability | 15 / 20 | 350k shares/day, $223.3B cap, beta 0.34 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (before the open), 19 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Auto - Manufacturers
The 12 companies below are the closest to Toyota Motor Corporation by market cap within the Auto - Manufacturers industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GM General Motors Company | 83.66 | 94.34 | +11% | 75Good | $73.4B |
| RACE Ferrari N.V. | 387.35 | 220.48 | -76% | 65Good | $67.9B |
| F Ford Motor Company | 12.31 | 18.04 | +32% | 45Weak | $49.1B |
| HMC Honda Motor Co., Ltd. | 34.06 | 3,477.83 | +99% | 45Weak | $44.2B |
| TSLA Tesla, Inc. | 367.16 | 31.77 | -1056% | 51Fair | $1.45T |
| RIVN Rivian Automotive, Inc. | 12.95 | - | - | 45Weak | $18.7B |
| STLA Stellantis N.V. | 4.27 | - | - | 45Weak | $12.4B |
| LI Li Auto Inc. | 11.46 | 74.75 | +85% | 45Weak | $11.5B |
| XPEV XPeng Inc. | 9.42 | 124.82 | +92% | 45Weak | $8.9B |
| NIO NIO Inc. | 3.50 | - | - | 45Weak | $8.3B |
| VFS VinFast Auto Ltd. | 3.02 | - | - | 45Weak | $7.1B |
| HOG Harley-Davidson, Inc. | 27.59 | 48.04 | +43% | 81Prime | $2.9B |
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A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the same eight-rule screen, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about TM
Is TM undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 188.60 the stock is 95% below the average fair value of 4,083.88 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of TM and what does it mean?
TM scores 71 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for TM?
4,083.88 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Toyota Motor Corporation report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (before the open), 19 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does TM have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 562 listed contracts with 16,250 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 25% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.