Stock fact sheet · data as of
Ferrovial N.V. (FER): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Industrials · Engineering & Construction · Netherlands · ADR · Defensive
Is FER undervalued?
FER closed at 48.86 on 16 Oct 2026, which is 19% above the GLS average fair value of 41.04 from 9 models. 5 of them value the shares below today's price. Our screens read that as "no margin of safety": the stock is not a value candidate at this price, whatever the quality numbers say.
There is a wide gap between EPV (10.55) and Payback Time (93.96). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files FER under Defensive: a low beta, a dividend and positive earnings.
Nine valuation models for FER
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 69.65 | +43% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 12.26 | -75% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 36.89 | -25% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 14.83 | -70% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 58.11 | +19% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 56.80 | +16% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 93.96 | +92% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 16.36 | -67% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 10.55 | -78% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -17.26 | -135% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 70.93 | +45% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Ferrovial N.V. scores 7 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule with room to spare. A GLS Moat score of 3.3/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 5.3%, ROE 15.0%, ROA 3.2% - with debt at 1.82 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 6.6%.
The dividend yield is 2.57% at a payout ratio of 35%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold.
Institutional ownership scores 4/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | 5.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 3.3 / 10 | ROE | 15.0% |
| Debt / equity | 1.82 | ROA | 3.2% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 6.6% | Payout ratio | 35% |
| Institutions | 4 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 61: Fair
A Wheel Score of 61 puts Ferrovial N.V. in the Fair band - below the 70 the Sunday Scan requires. Value 5/25, Health 16/20, Moat 5/15, Premium 16/20 and Stability 20/20; the weakest part is Value (5/25).
Implied volatility is 31% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (16 of 20 points). Chain open interest is 3,042 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 5.7M shares a day on a market cap of $35.2B, with a beta of 0.80 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 5 / 25 | -19% margin of safety | |
| Health | 16 / 20 | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Moat | 5 / 15 | moat 3.3/10 | |
| Premium | 16 / 20 | implied volatility 31% | |
| Stability | 20 / 20 | 5.7M shares/day, $35.2B cap, beta 0.80 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Ferrovial N.V. reports earnings on 27 Oct 2026 - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Engineering & Construction
The 12 companies below are the closest to Ferrovial N.V. by market cap within the Engineering & Construction industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EME EMCOR Group, Inc. | 732.53 | 697.72 | -5% | 74Good | $32.3B |
| FIX Comfort Systems USA, Inc. | 1,481.27 | 1,251.68 | -18% | 71Good | $52.1B |
| APG APi Group Corporation | 40.33 | 28.77 | -40% | 61Fair | $17.4B |
| J Jacobs Solutions Inc. | 141.97 | 66.43 | -114% | 57Fair | $16.6B |
| MTZ MasTec, Inc. | 191.63 | 172.57 | -11% | 68Good | $15.4B |
| STRL Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. | 453.07 | 439.81 | -3% | 67Good | $13.9B |
| PWR Quanta Services, Inc. | 660.53 | 256.02 | -158% | 61Fair | $99.3B |
| IESC IES Holdings, Inc. | 262.44 | 218.37 | -20% | 62Fair | $10.6B |
| TTEK Tetra Tech, Inc. | 33.61 | 28.92 | -16% | 76Good | $8.6B |
| DY Dycom Industries, Inc. | 257.78 | 361.57 | +29% | 81Prime | $7.8B |
| ACM Aecom | 59.09 | 51.70 | -14% | 64Fair | $7.6B |
| STN Stantec Inc. | 67.11 | 98.56 | +32% | 86Prime | $7.5B |
Screen the whole market the same way
A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the same eight-rule screen, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about FER
Is FER undervalued right now?
No: at 48.86 the stock trades 19% above the GLS average fair value of 41.04 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). The margin of safety is negative.
What is the Wheel Score of FER and what does it mean?
FER scores 61 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for FER?
41.04 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Ferrovial N.V. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 27 Oct 2026, 11 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does FER have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 122 listed contracts with 3,042 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 31% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.