Stock fact sheet · data as of
HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Healthcare · Medical - Care Facilities · United States · Value
Is HCA undervalued?
HCA closed at 468.50 on 16 Oct 2026, 22% below the GLS average fair value of 599.99 from 8 models (4 of them above the price). That is a moderate margin of safety: the stock passes the "below fair value" rule of the Sunday Scan, and the Wheel Score gives it 22 of the 25 Value points.
The 8 models disagree widely: DDM gives 45.03 while GLS Growth gives 1,127.48. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files HCA under Value: positive earnings at a P/E of 18 or less.
Nine valuation models for HCA
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 294.89 | -37% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | 916.15 | +96% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 338.03 | -28% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 1,127.48 | +141% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 834.08 | +78% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 903.22 | +93% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 45.03 | -90% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 341.07 | -27% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -230.63 | -149% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 461.12 | -2% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
On financial health HCA scores 7/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is 7.0 out of 10: a ten-year record that is consistent in some of the metrics the score tracks (revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, returns on capital) and patchy in others.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 15.4%, ROE -112.6%, ROA 11.2% - with debt at -8.33 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 5.9%.
The dividend yield is 0.65% with a payout ratio of 10% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business. Revenue comes mainly from Managed Care And Other Insurers 46%, Managed Medicare 17%, Medicare 15% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 7/10, insider activity 4/10 and Congressional trading 10/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | 15.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 7.0 / 10 | ROE | -112.6% |
| Debt / equity | -8.33 | ROA | 11.2% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 5.9% | Payout ratio | 10% |
| Institutions | 7 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 4 · 10 / 10 |
Wheel Score 86: Prime
HCA scores 86 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Prime band (80 and above), which fewer than one stock in twenty reaches on any night. The score blends five things a wheel trader checks before selling a cash-secured put: the margin of safety (Value, 22/25), Piotroski health (16/20), the GLS moat (11/15), the option premium on offer (20/20) and how easily the stock trades (18/20).
Implied volatility is 36% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 35,675 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 1.1M shares a day on a market cap of $101.4B, with a beta of 1.11; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 18 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 22 / 25 | 22% margin of safety | |
| Health | 16 / 20 | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Moat | 11 / 15 | moat 7.0/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 36% | |
| Stability | 18 / 20 | 1.1M shares/day, $101.4B cap, beta 1.11 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
HCA Healthcare, Inc. reports earnings on 23 Oct 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Medical - Care Facilities
The 12 companies below are the closest to HCA Healthcare, Inc. by market cap within the Medical - Care Facilities industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THC Tenet Healthcare Corporation | 271.60 | 729.27 | +63% | 88Prime | $21.9B |
| EHC Encompass Health Corporation | 127.77 | 114.09 | -12% | 72Good | $12.6B |
| DVA DaVita Inc. | 189.16 | 301.75 | +37% | 82Prime | $12.1B |
| FMS Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA | 22.13 | 66.81 | +67% | 90Prime | $11.8B |
| UHS Universal Health Services, Inc. | 185.89 | 441.31 | +58% | 91Prime | $11.0B |
| ENSG The Ensign Group, Inc. | 178.11 | 134.74 | -32% | 59Fair | $10.4B |
| PACS PACS Group, Inc. | 44.98 | 56.37 | +20% | 82Prime | $7.1B |
| CHE Chemed Corporation | 515.44 | 334.59 | -54% | 58Fair | $6.7B |
| HIMS Hims & Hers Health, Inc. | 29.38 | 55.91 | +47% | 45Weak | $6.6B |
| CON Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. | 39.15 | 28.17 | -39% | 66Good | $5.0B |
| LFST LifeStance Health Group, Inc. | 12.37 | 8.21 | -51% | 63Fair | $4.7B |
| OPCH Option Care Health, Inc. | 31.22 | 36.30 | +14% | 70Good | $4.7B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about HCA
Is HCA undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, moderately: at 468.50 the stock trades 22% below the average fair value of 599.99 (data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of HCA and what does it mean?
HCA scores 86 out of 100 (Prime). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for HCA?
599.99 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does HCA Healthcare, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 23 Oct 2026 (before the open), 7 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does HCA have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 1,000 listed contracts with 35,675 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 36% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.