Stock fact sheet · data as of
Hercules Capital Inc (HCXY): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Asset Management · United States · High Yield Income
Is HCXY undervalued?
HCXY closed at 24.37 on 16 Oct 2026, 26% below the GLS average fair value of 33.11 from 9 models (5 of them above the price). That is a moderate margin of safety: the stock passes the "below fair value" rule of the Sunday Scan, and the Wheel Score gives it 24 of the 25 Value points.
The 9 models disagree widely: 10 Cap gives 0.9109 while GLS Growth gives 78.89. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files HCXY under High Yield Income: a dividend yield above 4%.
Nine valuation models for HCXY
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 69.89 | +187% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 23.87 | -2% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 48.75 | +100% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 12.09 | -50% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 78.89 | +224% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 0.9109 | -96% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 1.38 | -94% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 28.69 | +18% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 33.57 | +38% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -17.63 | -172% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 0.0000 | -100% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - HCXY passes 5 of the nine Piotroski tests, which falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is low at 4.2 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 7.5%, ROE 15.3%, ROA 7.4% - with debt at 1.04 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 0.3%.
The dividend yield is high at 11.71% (payout ratio 88%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual.
Institutional ownership scores 5/10, insider activity 10/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | 7.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 4.2 / 10 | ROE | 15.3% |
| Debt / equity | 1.04 | ROA | 7.4% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 0.3% | Payout ratio | 88% |
| Institutions | 5 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 10 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 39: No options
HCXY has no listed options in the nightly snapshot, so there is nothing to sell and the stock cannot be wheeled however good the business; the Wheel Score is capped at 39 and shown as "No options" (39 here). The valuation and quality numbers still apply to owning the shares outright.
Volume runs at 3k shares a day on a market cap of $3.1B, with a beta of 0.79 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 10 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 24 / 25 | 26% margin of safety | |
| Health | 11 / 20 | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Moat | 6 / 15 | moat 4.2/10 | |
| Premium | 0 / 20 | no option data | |
| Stability | 10 / 20 | 3k shares/day, $3.1B cap, beta 0.79 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (after the close), 19 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Asset Management
The 12 companies below are the closest to Hercules Capital Inc by market cap within the Asset Management industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HTGC Hercules Capital, Inc. | 16.66 | 27.42 | +39% | 76Good | $3.1B |
| GBDC Golub Capital BDC, Inc. | 12.27 | 32.28 | +62% | 81Prime | $3.2B |
| WT WisdomTree, Inc. | 21.08 | 19.68 | -7% | 70Good | $3.2B |
| FCAMX Franklin California High Yield Municipal Fund Class A1 | 9.17 | 6.20 | -48% | 24No options | $3.1B |
| HFMSX The Hartford MidCap Fund Class R4 | 26.61 | 390.89 | +93% | 39No options | $3.1B |
| HFMIX The Hartford MidCap Fund | 21.65 | 325.59 | +93% | 39No options | $3.1B |
| AB AllianceBernstein Holding L.P. | 34.76 | 46.63 | +25% | 73Good | $3.2B |
| CSQ Calamos Strategic Total Return Fund | 20.09 | 158.06 | +87% | 39No options | $3.2B |
| ADX Adams Diversified Equity Fund, Inc. | 25.79 | 118.38 | +78% | 39No options | $3.2B |
| UTG Reaves Utility Income Fund | 35.42 | 253.85 | +86% | 39No options | $3.2B |
| VNJTX Vanguard New Jersey Long-Term Tax-Exempt Fund Investor Shares | 10.70 | 3.04 | -252% | 26No options | $3.0B |
| YAFIX AMG Yacktman Focused I | 23.81 | 29.22 | +19% | 39No options | $3.0B |
⚖ Compare HCXY with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about HCXY
Is HCXY undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, moderately: at 24.37 the stock trades 26% below the average fair value of 33.11 (data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of HCXY and what does it mean?
HCXY has no listed options in our nightly snapshot, so it cannot be wheeled; its Wheel Score is capped at 39 and shown as "No options".
What is the GLS fair value for HCXY?
33.11 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Hercules Capital Inc report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (after the close), 19 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does HCXY have listed options, and how liquid are they?
No. The nightly options snapshot found no listed contracts on HCXY, so the wheel strategy cannot be run on it and the Wheel Score is capped at 39.