Stock fact sheet · data as of
Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol HTGC · Financial Services · Asset Management · United States · Blend Income
Is HTGC undervalued?
HTGC has a margin of safety of 49%: the stock closed at 16.63 on 5 Nov 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 32.54. 6 of the 7 valuation models that produced a number sit above the price. Our scans treat a discount this large as a strong starting point for a cash-secured put, not as a verdict - the fair value is a model output, and a wide gap can mean the models are missing something the market knows.
The 7 models disagree widely: Lynch gives 3.02 while DCF gives 73.28. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
Ranked against every other company we cover, neither cheapness nor growth clearly wins for HTGC, so the nightly engine files it under Blend (value score 71, growth score 72, out of 100). It also carries the Income tag (Income = a dividend yield of 4% or more).
Nine valuation models for HTGC
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 73.28 | +341% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 23.24 | +40% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 21.86 | +31% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 3.02 | -82% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 56.38 | +239% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 28.69 | +73% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 21.33 | +28% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -12.00 | -172% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 15.50 | -7% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is weak: HTGC passes 4 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our scans drop the stock at the health filter; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. The GLS Moat score is 7.2 out of 10: a record that is solid on some of the four parts the score weighs (returns on capital, pricing power, lasting growth, balance sheet) and weaker on others.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 7.5%, ROE 15.3%, ROA 7.4% - with debt at 1.04 times equity and negative free cash flow.
The dividend yield is high at 11.73% (payout ratio 95%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual.
Institutional ownership scores 4/10, insider activity 10/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded insider buy was on 17 Sep 2026.
| Piotroski F-score | 4 / 9 | ROIC | 7.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 7.2 / 10 | ROE | 15.3% |
| Debt / equity | 1.04 | ROA | 7.4% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -4.9% | Payout ratio | 95% |
| Institutions | 4 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 10 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 53: Fair
HTGC scores 53 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Fair band, 50-69) because it fails filter 4, financially healthy - Piotroski 4/9 (under 6). A stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to reach 70. Otherwise the parts read: value strong, premium strong, moat good, health fair, red flags strong, option trading fair, stability fair.
Implied volatility is 37% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% sweet spot the Wheel Score rewards most: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 16,604 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 2.4M shares a day on a market cap of $3.2B, with a beta of 0.76 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that fair.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Passes | Listed options with 1,000+ contracts of open interest and 100+ traded a day |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Passes | Profitable over the last twelve months - not a speculative stock, fund or note |
| 3 | Below fair value | Passes | Trading below the nine-model average fair value (margin of safety above 0) |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Fails | Piotroski 4/9 (under 6) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Passes | Long-term debt repaid from 3 years of operating cash flow or less (6 for real estate and utilities; banks and insurers are not judged on it) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Strong | 49% below fair value | |
| Premium | Strong | implied volatility 37% | |
| Moat | Good | moat 7.2/10 | |
| Health | Fair | Piotroski 4/9 | |
| Red Flags | Strong | Red Flags score 90/100 | |
| Option trading | Fair | 2,887 contracts a day, 16,604 open interest | |
| Stability | Fair | beta 0.76, $3.2B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for HTGC in the nightly calendar. The shares go ex-dividend on 10 Nov 2026 (0.4700 per share), so a covered call sold before then carries a small early-assignment risk around that date.
No analyst upgrades or downgrades were recorded in the last 30 days.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Asset Management
The 12 companies below are the closest to Hercules Capital, Inc. by market cap within the Asset Management industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HCXY Hercules Capital Inc | 24.35 | 40.93 | +41% | 33No options | $3.2B |
| FSK FS KKR Capital Corp. | 11.46 | 49.95 | +77% | 47Weak | $3.2B |
| UTG Reaves Utility Income Fund | 34.21 | 254.00 | +87% | 25No options | $3.1B |
| CSQ Calamos Strategic Total Return Fund | 19.89 | 158.12 | +87% | 25No options | $3.2B |
| ADX Adams Diversified Equity Fund, Inc. | 25.56 | 118.39 | +78% | 26No options | $3.2B |
| YAFIX AMG Yacktman Focused I | 24.55 | 29.22 | +16% | 20No options | $3.1B |
| HFMSX The Hartford MidCap Fund Class R4 | 25.45 | 376.00 | +93% | 28No options | $3.1B |
| HFMIX The Hartford MidCap Fund | 20.71 | 313.49 | +93% | 28No options | $3.1B |
| FCAMX Franklin California High Yield Municipal Fund Class A1 | 9.36 | 6.19 | -51% | 12No options | $3.1B |
| AB AllianceBernstein Holding L.P. | 35.30 | 46.57 | +24% | 40Weak | $3.2B |
| AAMI Acadian Asset Management | 91.62 | 66.58 | -38% | 39Weak | $3.3B |
| VNJTX Vanguard New Jersey Long-Term Tax-Exempt Fund Investor Shares | 11.03 | 3.04 | -262% | 12No options | $3.0B |
⚖ Compare HTGC with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
Scan the whole market the same way
A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the top 10 stocks that pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about HTGC
Is HTGC undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 16.63 the stock is 49% below the average fair value of 32.54 (data as of 5 Nov 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of HTGC and what does it mean?
HTGC scores 53 out of 100 (Fair) - it fails Wheel Trade Filter 4. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for HTGC?
32.54 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 7 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Hercules Capital, Inc. report earnings next?
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for HTGC in our calendar as of 5 Nov 2026; the Calendars page is refreshed every morning.
Does HTGC have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 78 listed contracts with 16,604 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 37% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.