Stock fact sheet · data as of
Holley Inc. (HLLY): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Consumer Cyclical · Auto - Parts · United States · Blend
Is HLLY undervalued?
Holley Inc. (HLLY) closed at 2.61 on 16 Oct 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 8 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 3.31, so the price sits 21% below it. 5 of the 8 models value the shares above the current price. A margin of safety between 10% and 30% is where most of the Sunday Scan candidates come from.
There is a wide gap between GLS Growth (0.4741) and 10 Cap (8.06). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files HLLY under Blend.
Nine valuation models for HLLY
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 5.07 | +94% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 2.69 | +3% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 3.33 | +28% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 1.34 | -49% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 0.4741 | -82% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 8.06 | +209% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 4.53 | +74% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 0.9535 | -63% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -3.32 | -227% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 4.00 | +53% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Holley Inc. scores 7 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule with room to spare. A GLS Moat score of 3.3/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 2.0%, ROE 4.3%, ROA 1.6% - with debt at 1.18 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 11.7%.
Holley Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Electronic Systems 43%, Mechanical System 23%, Accessories 14% (quarter Q1 FY2022).
Institutional ownership scores 8/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | 2.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 3.3 / 10 | ROE | 4.3% |
| Debt / equity | 1.18 | ROA | 1.6% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 11.7% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 8 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 63: Fair
A Wheel Score of 63 puts Holley Inc. in the Fair band - below the 70 the Sunday Scan requires. Value 21/25, Health 16/20, Moat 5/15, Premium 9/20 and Stability 12/20; the weakest part is Moat (5/15).
Implied volatility is 105% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (9 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is thin - 453 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 1.2M shares a day on a market cap of $314M, with a beta of 1.39 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 12 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 21 / 25 | 21% margin of safety | |
| Health | 16 / 20 | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Moat | 5 / 15 | moat 3.3/10 | |
| Premium | 9 / 20 | implied volatility 105% | |
| Stability | 12 / 20 | 1.2M shares/day, $314M cap, beta 1.39 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 6 Nov 2026 (before the open), 21 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Auto - Parts
The 12 companies below are the closest to Holley Inc. by market cap within the Auto - Parts industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
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| ECX ECARX Holdings, Inc. | 0.9356 | - | - | 36No options | $325M |
| SCTH SecureTech Innovations, Inc. | 19.00 | - | - | 27No options | $326M |
| SES SES AI Corporation | 0.9148 | 1.66 | +45% | 45Weak | $335M |
| CPS Cooper-Standard Holdings Inc. | 21.48 | 210.70 | +90% | 45Weak | $382M |
| STRT Strattec Security Corporation | 60.94 | 201.56 | +70% | 39No options | $255M |
| MNRO Monro Inc. | 14.36 | 15.55 | +8% | 57Fair | $449M |
| SLDP Solid Power, Inc. | 2.08 | - | - | 43Weak | $475M |
| MPAA Motorcar Parts of America, Inc. | 10.35 | 10.92 | +5% | 43Weak | $196M |
| SRI Stoneridge, Inc. | 5.96 | 31.47 | +81% | 45Weak | $170M |
| MLR Miller Industries, Inc. | 51.27 | 68.16 | +25% | 69Good | $582M |
| HYLN Hyliion Holdings Corp. | 3.28 | - | - | 38Weak | $586M |
| CAAS China Automotive Systems, Inc. | 4.45 | 71.72 | +94% | 67Good | $134M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about HLLY
Is HLLY undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, moderately: at 2.61 the stock trades 21% below the average fair value of 3.31 (data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of HLLY and what does it mean?
HLLY scores 63 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for HLLY?
3.31 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Holley Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 6 Nov 2026 (before the open), 21 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does HLLY have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 30 listed contracts with 453 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 105% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.