Stock fact sheet · data as of
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. (IVR): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage · United States · High Yield Income
Is IVR undervalued?
IVR has a margin of safety of 70%: the stock closed at 5.64 on 16 Oct 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 18.84. 7 of the 8 valuation models that produced a number sit above the price. Our screens treat a discount this large as a strong starting point for a cash-secured put, not as a verdict - the fair value is a model output, and a wide gap can mean the models are missing something the market knows.
There is a wide gap between Lynch (4.67) and Payback Time (36.12). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files IVR under High Yield Income: a dividend yield above 4%.
Nine valuation models for IVR
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | 15.89 | +182% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 18.82 | +234% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 4.67 | -17% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 8.79 | +56% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 32.25 | +472% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 36.12 | +540% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 21.19 | +276% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 12.96 | +130% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -59.03 | -1147% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 7.75 | +37% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. scores 6 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. A GLS Moat score of 1.7/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 1.6%, ROE 12.7%, ROA 1.6% - with debt at 7.05 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 31.7%. Debt of 7.05 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
The dividend yield is high at 25.53% (payout ratio 115%) - a payout above 100% of earnings, which is not covered by profits. A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual.
Institutional ownership scores 5/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 1.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 1.7 / 10 | ROE | 12.7% |
| Debt / equity | 7.05 | ROA | 1.6% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 31.7% | Payout ratio | 115% |
| Institutions | 5 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 74: Good
With a Wheel Score of 74 - the Good band - Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. clears the Sunday Scan's "70 or higher" rule. The parts: Value 25/25, Health 13/20, Moat 3/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 13/20; Moat (3/15) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 40% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 13,023 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 4.3M shares a day on a market cap of $524M, with a beta of 1.64 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 13 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 70% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 3 / 15 | moat 1.7/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 40% | |
| Stability | 13 / 20 | 4.3M shares/day, $524M cap, beta 1.64 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. reports earnings on 29 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk. The shares go ex-dividend on 26 Oct 2026 (0.1200 per share), so a covered call sold before then carries a small early-assignment risk around that date.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in REIT - Mortgage
The 12 companies below are the closest to Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. by market cap within the REIT - Mortgage industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABR Arbor Realty Trust | 2.80 | 40.95 | +93% | 70Good | $522M |
| FBRT Franklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc. | 6.27 | 44.26 | +86% | 86Prime | $521M |
| AOMN Angel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc. 9 | 24.43 | 42.53 | +43% | 39No options | $567M |
| BRSP BrightSpire Capital, Inc. | 3.79 | 10.84 | +65% | 45Weak | $480M |
| PMT PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust | 6.87 | 53.65 | +87% | 71Good | $599M |
| TRTX TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. | 5.64 | 15.47 | +64% | 75Good | $433M |
| MFAN MFA Financial, Inc. 8.875% Senior Notes | 25.17 | 96.77 | +74% | 39No options | $677M |
| MFA MFA Financial, Inc. | 6.70 | 48.10 | +86% | 81Prime | $677M |
| MFAO MFA Financial, Inc. 9.000% Senior Notes | 25.10 | 115.10 | +78% | 39No options | $679M |
| ADAMN Adamas Trust, Inc. | 22.91 | 94.82 | +76% | 39No options | $679M |
| ADAMZ Adamas Trust, Inc. 7.000% Series G Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock | 15.70 | 105.91 | +85% | 38No options | $689M |
| ADAML Adamas Trust, Inc. - 6.875% Series F Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock, $0.01 par value per share | 23.69 | 150.42 | +84% | 38No options | $697M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about IVR
Is IVR undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 5.64 the stock is 70% below the average fair value of 18.84 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of IVR and what does it mean?
IVR scores 74 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for IVR?
18.84 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 29 Oct 2026 (after the close), 13 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does IVR have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 150 listed contracts with 13,023 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 40% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.