MFA Financial, Inc. 9.000% Senior Notes (MFAO): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is MFAO undervalued?

MFAO has a margin of safety of 78%: the stock closed at 25.10 on 16 Oct 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 115.10. 6 of the 8 valuation models that produced a number sit above the price. Our screens treat a discount this large as a strong starting point for a cash-secured put, not as a verdict - the fair value is a model output, and a wide gap can mean the models are missing something the market knows.

There is a wide gap between DDM (21.19) and GLS Growth (327.90). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.

The nightly engine files MFAO under High Growth: revenue and earnings growing fast enough that the growth-based models carry the valuation.

Nine valuation models for MFAO

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

MFA Financial, Inc. 9.000% Senior Notes scores 7 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule with room to spare. A GLS Moat score of 2.8/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.

Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 1.4%, ROE 9.7%, ROA 1.4% - with debt at 6.01 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 37.2%. Debt of 6.01 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.

The dividend yield is high at 21.49% (payout ratio 131%) - a payout above 100% of earnings, which is not covered by profits. A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual.

Institutional ownership scores 5/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.

Wheel Score 39: No options

No options are listed on MFA Financial, Inc. 9.000% Senior Notes in our nightly snapshot. The Wheel Score is therefore capped at 39 (it reads 39) and the stock is left out of every options screen; the fair value and health figures above are still useful for a plain stock position.

Volume runs at 5k shares a day on a market cap of $679M, with a beta of 0.05 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 7 of 20.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (before the open), 19 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium. The shares go ex-dividend on 30 Oct 2026 (0.5625 per share), so a covered call sold before then carries a small early-assignment risk around that date.

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

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