Stock fact sheet · data as of
KeyCorp (KEY): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol KEY · Financial Services · Banks - Regional · United States · Value
Is KEY undervalued?
KeyCorp (KEY) closed at 21.55 on 5 Nov 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 8 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 25.37, so the price sits 15% below it. 5 of the 8 models value the shares above the current price. A margin of safety between 10% and 30% is where most of the Sunday Scan candidates come from.
There is a wide gap between GLS Growth (0.0755) and Graham Growth (72.54). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
Ranked against every other company we cover, KEY is clearly cheaper than it is fast-growing, so the nightly engine files it under Value (value score 61, growth score 41, out of 100).
Nine valuation models for KEY
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | 27.63 | +28% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 72.54 | +237% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 28.56 | +33% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 0.0755 | -100% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 27.09 | +26% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 12.66 | -41% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 12.07 | -44% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 22.33 | +4% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -41.97 | -295% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 25.13 | +17% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
KeyCorp scores 7 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the "Piotroski 6 or more" Wheel Trade Filter with room to spare. On durability KEY scores 5.3/10 on the GLS Moat - a middle reading; the Moat Score tab on the Quote page's Financials view shows which of the four parts hold it back.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 5.8%, ROE 9.0%, ROA 1.0% - with debt at 0.54 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 3.6%.
The dividend yield is 3.81% at a payout ratio of 37%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Commercial Bank 52%, Consumer Bank 48% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 3/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | 5.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 5.3 / 10 | ROE | 9.0% |
| Debt / equity | 0.54 | ROA | 1.0% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 3.6% | Payout ratio | 37% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 3 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 71: Good
With a Wheel Score of 71 - the Good band - KeyCorp passes all 9 Wheel Trade Filters. How it ranks: value fair, premium fair, moat fair, health good, red flags good, option trading good, stability good. Value (fair) is the part keeping it out of the Prime band.
Implied volatility is 27% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: enough to pass the 25-80% Wheel Trade Filter, but under the 35-60% sweet spot the score rewards most. The option chain is deep: 75,008 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 17.6M shares a day on a market cap of $23.3B, with a beta of 1.07; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that good.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Passes | Listed options with 1,000+ contracts of open interest and 100+ traded a day |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Passes | Profitable over the last twelve months - not a speculative stock, fund or note |
| 3 | Below fair value | Passes | Trading below the nine-model average fair value (margin of safety above 0) |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Passes | Piotroski F-score 6 or more out of 9 (a company with no score on file passes) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Passes | Long-term debt repaid from 3 years of operating cash flow or less (6 for real estate and utilities; banks and insurers are not judged on it) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Fair | 15% below fair value | |
| Premium | Fair | implied volatility 27% | |
| Moat | Fair | moat 5.3/10 | |
| Health | Good | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Red Flags | Good | Red Flags score 80/100 | |
| Option trading | Good | 2,748 contracts a day, 75,008 open interest | |
| Stability | Good | beta 1.07, $23.3B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 20 Jan 2027, 76 days away - outside the window of a 30-45-day put sold today.
No analyst upgrades or downgrades were recorded in the last 30 days.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Banks - Regional
The 12 companies below are the closest to KeyCorp by market cap within the Banks - Regional industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCNCO First Citizens BancShares, Inc. | 18.55 | 2,717.08 | +99% | 39No options | $22.4B |
| CIB Grupo Cibest S.A. | 94.38 | 180.87 | +48% | 87Prime | $22.3B |
| FCNCB First Citizens BancShares, Inc. | 1,830.00 | 5,222.46 | +65% | 40No options | $24.4B |
| RF Regions Financial Corporation | 29.03 | 29.12 | +0% | 36Weak | $24.7B |
| FCNCA First Citizens BancShares, Inc. | 2,331.85 | 5,770.93 | +60% | 50Fair | $25.9B |
| BCH Banco de Chile | 39.49 | 39.25 | -1% | 34Weak | $19.9B |
| BBDO Banco Bradesco S.A. | 2.44 | 16.58 | +85% | 40No options | $27.3B |
| FCNCP First Citizens BancShares, Inc. | 18.13 | 2,716.08 | +99% | 40No options | $27.3B |
| CFG Citizens Financial Group, Inc. | 65.90 | 79.25 | +17% | 70Good | $27.6B |
| BBD Banco Bradesco S.A. | 2.57 | 17.92 | +86% | 59Fair | $28.3B |
| EWBC East West Bancorp, Inc. | 134.06 | 175.59 | +24% | 82Good | $18.4B |
| SHG Shinhan Financial Group Co., Ltd. | 65.06 | 212.28 | +69% | 52Fair | $30.1B |
⚖ Compare KEY with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about KEY
Is KEY undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, moderately: at 21.55 the stock trades 15% below the average fair value of 25.37 (data as of 5 Nov 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of KEY and what does it mean?
KEY scores 71 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for KEY?
25.37 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does KeyCorp report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 20 Jan 2027, 76 days from the data date of 5 Nov 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does KEY have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 82 listed contracts with 75,008 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 27% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.