Stock fact sheet · data as of
KeyCorp (KEY): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Banks - Regional · United States · High Yield Income
Is KEY undervalued?
KeyCorp (KEY) closed at 19.94 on 16 Oct 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 8 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 26.98, so the price sits 26% below it. 5 of the 8 models value the shares above the current price. A margin of safety between 10% and 30% is where most of the Sunday Scan candidates come from.
There is a wide gap between GLS Growth (0.4071) and Graham Growth (73.60). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files KEY under High Yield Income: a dividend yield above 4%.
Nine valuation models for KEY
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | 28.07 | +41% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 73.60 | +269% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 29.58 | +48% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 0.4071 | -98% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 32.81 | +65% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 18.25 | -8% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 12.07 | -39% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 21.06 | +6% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -41.97 | -310% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 25.00 | +25% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
KeyCorp scores 7 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule with room to spare. A GLS Moat score of 3.1/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 5.8%, ROE 9.0%, ROA 1.0% - with debt at 0.54 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 5.6%.
The dividend yield is high at 4.11% (payout ratio 51%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual. Revenue comes mainly from Commercial Bank 52%, Consumer Bank 48% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 2/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | 5.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 3.1 / 10 | ROE | 9.0% |
| Debt / equity | 0.54 | ROA | 1.0% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 5.6% | Payout ratio | 51% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 2 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 80: Prime
With a Wheel Score of 80, KeyCorp sits in the Prime band - price, quality and premium all line up for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 23/25, Health 16/20, Moat 5/15, Premium 16/20, Stability 20/20. A high score is a ranking, not a signal: it says nothing about timing, the earnings date or your position size.
Implied volatility is 31% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (16 of 20 points). The option chain is deep: 106,362 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 23.0M shares a day on a market cap of $21.5B, with a beta of 1.09; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 23 / 25 | 26% margin of safety | |
| Health | 16 / 20 | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Moat | 5 / 15 | moat 3.1/10 | |
| Premium | 16 / 20 | implied volatility 31% | |
| Stability | 20 / 20 | 23.0M shares/day, $21.5B cap, beta 1.09 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
KeyCorp reports earnings on 20 Oct 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Banks - Regional
The 12 companies below are the closest to KeyCorp by market cap within the Banks - Regional industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCNCO First Citizens BancShares, Inc. | 18.40 | 2,871.18 | +99% | 39No options | $22.2B |
| FCNCB First Citizens BancShares, Inc. | 1,680.00 | 5,724.12 | +71% | 39No options | $22.4B |
| RF Regions Financial Corporation | 26.89 | 34.44 | +22% | 87Prime | $22.9B |
| CIB Grupo Cibest S.A. | 97.65 | 164,799.35 | +100% | 90Prime | $23.1B |
| FCNCN First Citizens BancShares, Inc. Depositary Shares, each representing a 1/40th interest in a share of 6.625% Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, Series E | 22.96 | 2,881.25 | +99% | 39No options | $23.2B |
| BCH Banco de Chile | 39.10 | 4,791.92 | +99% | 45Weak | $19.7B |
| FCNCP First Citizens BancShares, Inc. | 17.60 | 2,869.41 | +99% | 39No options | $23.5B |
| FCNCA First Citizens BancShares, Inc. | 2,097.20 | 6,195.01 | +66% | 79Good | $23.7B |
| CFG Citizens Financial Group, Inc. | 63.43 | 89.86 | +29% | 86Prime | $26.7B |
| EWBC East West Bancorp, Inc. | 126.26 | 179.24 | +30% | 88Prime | $17.3B |
| BSAC Banco Santander-Chile | 32.82 | 2,521.93 | +99% | 81Prime | $15.5B |
| HBAN Huntington Bancshares Incorporated | 15.35 | 17.54 | +12% | 74Good | $31.0B |
⚖ Compare KEY with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about KEY
Is KEY undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, moderately: at 19.94 the stock trades 26% below the average fair value of 26.98 (data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of KEY and what does it mean?
KEY scores 80 out of 100 (Prime). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for KEY?
26.98 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does KeyCorp report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 20 Oct 2026 (before the open), 4 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does KEY have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 442 listed contracts with 106,362 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 31% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.