Stock fact sheet · data as of
Kestrel Group Ltd (KG): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol KG · Financial Services · Insurance - Reinsurance · Bermuda · Speculative Income
Is KG undervalued?
KG has a margin of safety of 93%: the stock closed at 4.29 on 5 Nov 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 60.62. 2 of the 2 valuation models that produced a number sit above the price. Our scans treat a discount this large as a strong starting point for a cash-secured put, not as a verdict - the fair value is a model output, and a wide gap can mean the models are missing something the market knows.
Only 2 of the nine models produced a value (DCF, DDM); the others need a dividend, positive free cash flow or positive book value the company does not have yet, so the average rests on a narrow base.
The nightly engine files KG under Speculative - it is losing money or its Piotroski health score is 3 or lower - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan. It also carries the Income tag (Income = a dividend yield of 4% or more).
Nine valuation models for KG
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 46.01 | +973% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 75.23 | +1654% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -51.48 | -1300% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 0.0000 | -100% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
No Piotroski health score is on file for KG (the statements it needs were not available), so the Health part of the Wheel Score counts it at half marks - 10 of 20 - rather than marking the stock down for missing data. The GLS Moat score is 6.0 out of 10: a record that is solid on some of the four parts the score weighs (returns on capital, pricing power, lasting growth, balance sheet) and weaker on others.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 15.3%, ROE 36.4%, ROA 8.5% - with debt at 1.38 times equity and negative free cash flow.
The dividend yield is high at 119.17% (payout ratio 0%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual.
Institutional ownership scores 2/10, insider activity 10/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded insider buy was on 24 Sep 2026.
| Piotroski F-score | - / 9 | ROIC | 15.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 6.0 / 10 | ROE | 36.4% |
| Debt / equity | 1.38 | ROA | 8.5% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -333.5% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 2 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 10 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 32: No options
KG has no listed options in the nightly snapshot, so there is nothing to sell and the stock cannot be wheeled however good the business. It fails the first Wheel Trade Filter (options that actually trade), so the score stays under 70 and is shown as "No options" (32 here). The valuation and quality numbers still apply to owning the shares outright.
Volume runs at 0k shares a day on a market cap of $34M, with a beta of 0.78 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that fair.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Fails | no listed options |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Fails | speculative (a loss, or a weak Piotroski score) |
| 3 | Below fair value | Passes | Trading below the nine-model average fair value (margin of safety above 0) |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Passes | Piotroski F-score 6 or more out of 9 (a company with no score on file passes) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Passes | Long-term debt repaid from 3 years of operating cash flow or less (6 for real estate and utilities; banks and insurers are not judged on it) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Fails | no implied volatility |
| 8 | Big enough | Fails | market cap $34M (under $1.0B) |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Fails | price 4.29 (under $5) |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Strong | 93% below fair value | |
| Premium | Weak | no option data | |
| Moat | Good | moat 6.0/10 | |
| Health | Fair | no Piotroski score on file - half marks | |
| Red Flags | Fair | not scored yet - half marks | |
| Option trading | Weak | no option volume data | |
| Stability | Fair | beta 0.78, $34M company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Kestrel Group Ltd reports earnings on 11 Nov 2026 - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Insurance - Reinsurance
The 8 companies below are the closest to Kestrel Group Ltd by market cap within the Insurance - Reinsurance industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OXBR Oxbridge Re Holdings Limited | 0.7750 | 1.05 | +26% | 23No options | $6M |
| GLRE Greenlight Capital Re, Ltd. | 16.37 | 86.06 | +81% | 44Weak | $528M |
| SPNT SiriusPoint Ltd. | 25.82 | 70.05 | +63% | 53Fair | $3.0B |
| HG Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. | 37.28 | 136.92 | +73% | 53Fair | $3.7B |
| RNR RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. | 353.66 | 943.57 | +63% | 39Weak | $14.3B |
| EG Everest Group, Ltd. | 421.30 | 903.72 | +53% | 40Weak | $15.6B |
| RZC Reinsurance Group of America, Incorporated | 25.59 | 331.24 | +92% | 32No options | $17.4B |
| RGA Reinsurance Group of America, Incorporated | 266.65 | 781.92 | +66% | 78Good | $17.4B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about KG
Is KG undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 4.29 the stock is 93% below the average fair value of 60.62 (data as of 5 Nov 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of KG and what does it mean?
KG has no listed options in our nightly snapshot, so it cannot be wheeled; it fails the first Wheel Trade Filter (options that actually trade), stays under 70 and is shown as "No options".
What is the GLS fair value for KG?
60.62 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 2 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Kestrel Group Ltd report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 11 Nov 2026, 6 days from the data date of 5 Nov 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does KG have listed options, and how liquid are they?
No. The nightly options snapshot found no listed contracts on KG, so the wheel strategy cannot be run on it and the Wheel Score stays under 70.