Stock fact sheet · data as of
Kestrel Group Ltd (KG): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Insurance - Reinsurance · Bermuda · Speculative / Distressed
Is KG undervalued?
KG has a margin of safety of 90%: the stock closed at 4.62 on 16 Oct 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 45.53. 1 of the 1 valuation models that produced a number sit above the price. Our screens treat a discount this large as a strong starting point for a cash-secured put, not as a verdict - the fair value is a model output, and a wide gap can mean the models are missing something the market knows.
Only 1 of the nine models produced a value (DCF); the others need a dividend, positive free cash flow or positive book value the company does not have yet, so the average rests on a narrow base.
The nightly engine files KG under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for KG
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 45.53 | +885% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -51.48 | -1214% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 0.0000 | -100% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is weak: KG passes 0 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our screens drop the stock at the health rule; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. The GLS Moat score is 5.8 out of 10: a ten-year record that is consistent in some of the metrics the score tracks (revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, returns on capital) and patchy in others.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 15.3%, ROE 36.4%, ROA 8.5% - with debt at 1.38 times equity and negative free cash flow.
Kestrel Group Ltd pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain.
Institutional ownership scores 2/10, insider activity 10/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 0 / 9 | ROIC | 15.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 5.8 / 10 | ROE | 36.4% |
| Debt / equity | 1.38 | ROA | 8.5% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -309.7% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 2 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 10 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 39: No options
KG has no listed options in the nightly snapshot, so there is nothing to sell and the stock cannot be wheeled however good the business; the Wheel Score is capped at 39 and shown as "No options" (39 here). The valuation and quality numbers still apply to owning the shares outright.
Volume runs at 14k shares a day on a market cap of $36M, with a beta of 0.75 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 6 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 90% margin of safety | |
| Health | 0 / 20 | Piotroski 0/9 | |
| Moat | 9 / 15 | moat 5.8/10 | |
| Premium | 0 / 20 | no option data | |
| Stability | 6 / 20 | 14k shares/day, $36M cap, beta 0.75 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 11 Nov 2026, 26 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Insurance - Reinsurance
The 8 companies below are the closest to Kestrel Group Ltd by market cap within the Insurance - Reinsurance industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OXBR Oxbridge Re Holdings Limited | 0.9264 | 1.05 | +11% | 32No options | $8M |
| GLRE Greenlight Capital Re, Ltd. | 14.74 | 68.25 | +78% | 74Good | $481M |
| SPNT SiriusPoint Ltd. | 25.27 | 69.85 | +64% | 83Prime | $2.9B |
| HG Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. | 35.50 | 123.93 | +71% | 86Prime | $3.5B |
| RNR RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. | 339.51 | 1,335.01 | +75% | 77Good | $14.1B |
| EG Everest Group, Ltd. | 381.35 | 943.59 | +60% | 77Good | $14.6B |
| RGA Reinsurance Group of America, Incorporated | 261.05 | 780.85 | +67% | 79Good | $17.0B |
| RZC Reinsurance Group of America, Incorporated | 24.95 | 327.39 | +92% | 39No options | $17.1B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about KG
Is KG undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 4.62 the stock is 90% below the average fair value of 45.53 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of KG and what does it mean?
KG has no listed options in our nightly snapshot, so it cannot be wheeled; its Wheel Score is capped at 39 and shown as "No options".
What is the GLS fair value for KG?
45.53 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 1 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Kestrel Group Ltd report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 11 Nov 2026, 26 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does KG have listed options, and how liquid are they?
No. The nightly options snapshot found no listed contracts on KG, so the wheel strategy cannot be run on it and the Wheel Score is capped at 39.