Stock fact sheet · data as of
The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods · United States · Speculative / Distressed
Is KHC undervalued?
At 23.28 (close of 16 Oct 2026), KHC trades 35% below the GLS average fair value of 35.95. That average comes from 3 models run on the latest filings, and 2 of them land above the current price. Margins of safety over 30% are the exception rather than the rule across the ~7,400 stocks we value each night, so the number earns The Kraft Heinz Company the full Value points in the Wheel Score - and a closer look at what the market is pricing in.
Only 3 of the nine models produced a value (DCF, 10 Cap, DDM); the others need a dividend, positive free cash flow or positive book value the company does not have yet, so the average rests on a narrow base.
The nightly engine files KHC under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for KHC
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 20.31 | -13% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | 64.01 | +175% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 23.54 | +1% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -25.19 | -208% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 24.11 | +4% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is weak: KHC passes 4 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our screens drop the stock at the health rule; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. The GLS Moat score is low at 3.5 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -9.3%, ROE -14.0%, ROA -7.1% - with debt at 0.51 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 13.8%.
The dividend yield is high at 6.87% (payout ratio -56%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual. Revenue comes mainly from Condiments, Sauces, and Spreads 46%, Ambient Meals and Sides 11%, Refreshment Beverages 9% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 6/10 and Congressional trading 10/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 4 / 9 | ROIC | -9.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 3.5 / 10 | ROE | -14.0% |
| Debt / equity | 0.51 | ROA | -7.1% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 13.8% | Payout ratio | -56% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 6 · 10 / 10 |
Wheel Score 45: Weak
KHC scores 45 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50), capped at 45 because the engine files it as Speculative / Distressed. Value 25/25, Health 9/20, Moat 5/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 20/20. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 38% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. The option chain is deep: 411,729 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 17.1M shares a day on a market cap of $27.6B, with a beta of 0.08 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 35% margin of safety | |
| Health | 9 / 20 | Piotroski 4/9 | |
| Moat | 5 / 15 | moat 3.5/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 38% | |
| Stability | 20 / 20 | 17.1M shares/day, $27.6B cap, beta 0.08 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (before the open), 19 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Packaged Foods
The 12 companies below are the closest to The Kraft Heinz Company by market cap within the Packaged Foods industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JBS Jbs N.V. | 12.72 | 66.75 | +81% | 88Prime | $28.2B |
| GIS General Mills, Inc. | 32.88 | 60.70 | +46% | 45Weak | $17.6B |
| SJM The J. M. Smucker Company | 121.84 | 80.04 | -52% | 56Fair | $13.0B |
| MKC McCormick & Company, Incorporated | 45.71 | 73.06 | +37% | 81Prime | $12.3B |
| MICC The Magnum Ice Cream Company N.V. | 18.44 | 21.79 | +15% | 76Good | $11.3B |
| HRL Hormel Foods Corporation | 20.19 | 16.39 | -23% | 54Fair | $11.1B |
| DAR Darling Ingredients Inc. | 60.87 | 63.96 | +5% | 81Prime | $9.6B |
| LW Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. | 54.21 | 39.77 | -36% | 63Fair | $7.5B |
| SFD Smithfield Foods, Inc. | 18.30 | 34.73 | +47% | 78Good | $7.2B |
| PPC Pilgrim's Pride Corporation | 29.01 | 65.35 | +56% | 82Prime | $6.9B |
| CAG Conagra Brands, Inc. | 14.18 | 26.09 | +46% | 45Weak | $6.8B |
| INGR Ingredion Incorporated | 97.27 | 228.28 | +57% | 82Prime | $6.1B |
⚖ Compare KHC with 7 of them All Consumer Defensive stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about KHC
Is KHC undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 23.28 the stock is 35% below the average fair value of 35.95 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of KHC and what does it mean?
KHC scores 45 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for KHC?
35.95 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 3 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does The Kraft Heinz Company report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (before the open), 19 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does KHC have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 582 listed contracts with 411,729 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 38% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.