Stock fact sheet · data as of
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods · United States · Defensive
Is LW undervalued?
At 54.21 (close of 16 Oct 2026), LW trades 36% over the GLS average fair value of 39.77, with 3 of 9 models above the price. The stock earns none of the Wheel Score's Value points at this price. That is a statement about price against trailing fundamentals, not about the company's prospects - the Wall Street View and the Growth tab on the Quote page carry the forward numbers.
There is a wide gap between GLS Growth (1.23) and 10 Cap (106.91). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files LW under Defensive: a low beta, a dividend and positive earnings.
Nine valuation models for LW
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 59.88 | +10% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 23.39 | -57% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 45.79 | -16% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 15.54 | -71% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 1.23 | -98% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 106.91 | +97% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 62.40 | +15% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 22.22 | -59% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 20.57 | -62% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -25.70 | -147% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 53.71 | -1% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. scores 7 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule with room to spare. On durability LW scores 5.2/10 on the GLS Moat - a middle reading; the Scorecard on the Quote page's Financials tab shows which ten-year lines are steady and which are not.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 5.0%, ROE 15.9%, ROA 3.9% - with debt at 2.16 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 6.8%. Debt of 2.16 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
The dividend yield is 2.79% at a payout ratio of 82%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Retail 68%, Global 32% (quarter Q1 FY2027).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 10/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | 5.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 5.2 / 10 | ROE | 15.9% |
| Debt / equity | 2.16 | ROA | 3.9% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 6.8% | Payout ratio | 82% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 10 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 63: Fair
A Wheel Score of 63 puts Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. in the Fair band - below the 70 the Sunday Scan requires. Value 0/25, Health 16/20, Moat 8/15, Premium 20/20 and Stability 19/20; the weakest part is Value (0/25).
Implied volatility is 36% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. The option chain is deep: 110,096 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 3.1M shares a day on a market cap of $7.5B, with a beta of 0.47 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 19 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -36% margin of safety | |
| Health | 16 / 20 | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Moat | 8 / 15 | moat 5.2/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 36% | |
| Stability | 19 / 20 | 3.1M shares/day, $7.5B cap, beta 0.47 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 18 Dec 2026, 63 days away - outside the window of a 30-45-day put sold today. The shares go ex-dividend on 6 Nov 2026 (0.3800 per share), so a covered call sold before then carries a small early-assignment risk around that date.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Packaged Foods
The 12 companies below are the closest to Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. by market cap within the Packaged Foods industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SFD Smithfield Foods, Inc. | 18.30 | 34.73 | +47% | 78Good | $7.2B |
| PPC Pilgrim's Pride Corporation | 29.01 | 65.35 | +56% | 82Prime | $6.9B |
| CAG Conagra Brands, Inc. | 14.18 | 26.09 | +46% | 45Weak | $6.8B |
| INGR Ingredion Incorporated | 97.27 | 228.28 | +57% | 82Prime | $6.1B |
| CPB Campbell Soup Company | 19.84 | 26.87 | +26% | 77Good | $5.9B |
| DAR Darling Ingredients Inc. | 60.87 | 63.96 | +5% | 81Prime | $9.6B |
| HRL Hormel Foods Corporation | 20.19 | 16.39 | -23% | 54Fair | $11.1B |
| MICC The Magnum Ice Cream Company N.V. | 18.44 | 21.79 | +15% | 76Good | $11.3B |
| MKC McCormick & Company, Incorporated | 45.71 | 73.06 | +37% | 81Prime | $12.3B |
| SJM The J. M. Smucker Company | 121.84 | 80.04 | -52% | 56Fair | $13.0B |
| POST Post Holdings, Inc. | 77.66 | 263.98 | +71% | 82Prime | $3.4B |
| FRPT Freshpet, Inc. | 67.65 | 100.50 | +33% | 80Prime | $3.3B |
Screen the whole market the same way
A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the same eight-rule screen, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about LW
Is LW undervalued right now?
No: at 54.21 the stock trades 36% above the GLS average fair value of 39.77 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of LW and what does it mean?
LW scores 63 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for LW?
39.77 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 18 Dec 2026, 63 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does LW have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 356 listed contracts with 110,096 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 36% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.