Stock fact sheet · data as of
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Consumer Defensive · Education & Training Services · United States · Blend
Is LOPE undervalued?
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE) closed at 161.43 on 16 Oct 2026, close to the GLS average fair value of 166.55 (3.1% below fair value). 4 of the 8 models that produced a number sit above the price, 4 below - the market and our models roughly agree. With little margin of safety either way, the case for or against the stock rests on the quality numbers and the option premium rather than on price.
The 8 models disagree widely: Graham Number gives 70.25 while 10 Cap gives 246.09. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files LOPE under Blend.
Nine valuation models for LOPE
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 217.44 | +35% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 70.25 | -56% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 238.16 | +48% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 85.36 | -47% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 134.75 | -17% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 246.09 | +52% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 245.14 | +52% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 95.22 | -41% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 5.94 | -96% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 160.67 | -0% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
On financial health LOPE scores 7/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is 6.1 out of 10: a ten-year record that is consistent in some of the metrics the score tracks (revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, returns on capital) and patchy in others.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 22.8%, ROE 28.9%, ROA 21.8% - with debt at 0.27 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 5.8%.
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Service 100% (quarter Q4 FY2020).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | 22.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 6.1 / 10 | ROE | 28.9% |
| Debt / equity | 0.27 | ROA | 21.8% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 5.8% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 72: Good
LOPE scores 72 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Good band, 65-79). The score blends the margin of safety (Value, 14/25), Piotroski health (16/20), the GLS moat (9/15), the option premium on offer (20/20) and how easily the stock trades (14/20). Value (14/25) is the part holding the score back.
Implied volatility is 38% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 2,216 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 319k shares a day on a market cap of $4.2B, with a beta of 0.58 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 14 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 14 / 25 | 3% margin of safety | |
| Health | 16 / 20 | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Moat | 9 / 15 | moat 6.1/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 38% | |
| Stability | 14 / 20 | 319k shares/day, $4.2B cap, beta 0.58 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (after the close), 19 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Education & Training Services
The 12 companies below are the closest to Grand Canyon Education, Inc. by market cap within the Education & Training Services industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVSA Covista Inc. | 127.24 | 235.79 | +46% | 89Prime | $4.3B |
| LRN Stride, Inc. | 83.18 | 245.69 | +66% | 85Prime | $3.5B |
| LAUR Laureate Education, Inc. | 39.04 | 63.72 | +39% | 86Prime | $5.4B |
| MH McGraw Hill, Inc. | 14.20 | 26.91 | +47% | 76Good | $2.7B |
| TAL TAL Education Group | 12.51 | 95.56 | +87% | 85Prime | $7.6B |
| DAO Youdao, Inc. | 18.51 | 12.84 | -44% | 39Weak | $2.2B |
| PRDO Perdoceo Education Corporation | 33.55 | 48.56 | +31% | 87Prime | $2.1B |
| EDU New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. | 60.35 | 82.36 | +27% | 85Prime | $9.4B |
| STRA Strategic Education, Inc. | 80.97 | 180.97 | +55% | 83Prime | $1.8B |
| COUR Coursera, Inc. | 5.09 | 9.88 | +48% | 45Weak | $1.3B |
| AFYA Afya Limited | 14.52 | 85.46 | +83% | 66Good | $1.3B |
| UTI Universal Technical Institute, Inc. | 20.31 | 18.31 | -11% | 66Good | $1.1B |
⚖ Compare LOPE with 7 of them All Consumer Defensive stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about LOPE
Is LOPE undervalued right now?
Not meaningfully: at 161.43 the stock trades within a few percent of the GLS average fair value of 166.55 (3.1% below fair value, data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of LOPE and what does it mean?
LOPE scores 72 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for LOPE?
166.55 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Grand Canyon Education, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (after the close), 19 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does LOPE have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 254 listed contracts with 2,216 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 38% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.