Stock fact sheet · data as of
Morgan Stanley (MS): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Financial - Capital Markets · United States · High Growth
Is MS undervalued?
Morgan Stanley (MS) closed at 182.11 on 16 Oct 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 6 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 246.96, so the price sits 26% below it. 2 of the 6 models value the shares above the current price. A margin of safety between 10% and 30% is where most of the Sunday Scan candidates come from.
The 6 models disagree widely: DCF gives 10.10 while GLS Growth gives 811.72. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files MS under High Growth: revenue and earnings growing fast enough that the growth-based models carry the valuation.
Nine valuation models for MS
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 10.10 | -94% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | 336.06 | +85% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 115.50 | -37% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 811.72 | +346% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 61.06 | -66% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 147.32 | -19% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -413.96 | -327% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 212.00 | +16% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - MS passes 5 of the nine Piotroski tests, which falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is 5.6 out of 10: a ten-year record that is consistent in some of the metrics the score tracks (revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, returns on capital) and patchy in others.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 2.9%, ROE 15.1%, ROA 1.2% - with debt at 4.26 times equity and negative free cash flow. Debt of 4.26 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
The dividend yield is 2.28% at a payout ratio of 33%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Wealth Management 47%, Institutional Securities 44%, Investment Management 10% (quarter Q4 FY2025).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 10/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | 2.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 5.6 / 10 | ROE | 15.1% |
| Debt / equity | 4.26 | ROA | 1.2% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -5.5% | Payout ratio | 33% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 10 / 10 |
Wheel Score 78: Good
MS scores 78 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Good band, 65-79). The score blends the margin of safety (Value, 23/25), Piotroski health (11/20), the GLS moat (8/15), the option premium on offer (15/20) and how easily the stock trades (20/20). Moat (8/15) is the part holding the score back.
Implied volatility is 30% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (15 of 20 points). The option chain is deep: 347,776 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 9.0M shares a day on a market cap of $287.2B, with a beta of 1.21 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 23 / 25 | 26% margin of safety | |
| Health | 11 / 20 | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Moat | 8 / 15 | moat 5.6/10 | |
| Premium | 15 / 20 | implied volatility 30% | |
| Stability | 20 / 20 | 9.0M shares/day, $287.2B cap, beta 1.21 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 14 Jan 2027, 90 days away - outside the window of a 30-45-day put sold today. The shares go ex-dividend on 30 Oct 2026 (1.15 per share), so a covered call sold before then carries a small early-assignment risk around that date.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Financial - Capital Markets
The 12 companies below are the closest to Morgan Stanley by market cap within the Financial - Capital Markets industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. | 891.28 | 945.36 | +6% | 70Good | $259.5B |
| SCHW The Charles Schwab Corporation | 96.80 | 113.65 | +15% | 83Prime | $167.4B |
| HOOD Robinhood Markets, Inc. | 103.99 | 46.61 | -123% | 52Fair | $93.5B |
| NMR Nomura Holdings, Inc. | 9.28 | 2,645.86 | +100% | 80Prime | $27.7B |
| LPLA LPL Financial Holdings Inc. | 327.56 | 408.01 | +20% | 75Good | $25.8B |
| TW Tradeweb Markets Inc. | 110.68 | 116.66 | +5% | 83Prime | $23.9B |
| CRCL Circle Internet Group | 86.97 | 66.58 | -31% | 55Fair | $22.1B |
| XP XP Inc. | 30.49 | 162.66 | +81% | 83Prime | $15.8B |
| FUTU Futu Holdings Limited | 109.80 | 1,064.51 | +90% | 87Prime | $15.4B |
| BMNR Bitmine Immersion Technologies, Inc. | 23.36 | 0.8043 | -2804% | 45Weak | $13.3B |
| BMNP Bitmine Immersion Technologies, Inc. | 98.88 | 1.77 | -5494% | 23No options | $12.7B |
| VIRT Virtu Financial, Inc. | 55.48 | 129.35 | +57% | 81Prime | $12.1B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about MS
Is MS undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, moderately: at 182.11 the stock trades 26% below the average fair value of 246.96 (data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of MS and what does it mean?
MS scores 78 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for MS?
246.96 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 6 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Morgan Stanley report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 14 Jan 2027, 90 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does MS have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 1,000 listed contracts with 347,776 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 30% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.