Stock fact sheet · data as of
Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. (MSGS): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Communication Services · Entertainment · United States · Blend
Is MSGS undervalued?
Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. (MSGS) closed at 404.66 on 16 Oct 2026, 2049% above the GLS average fair value of 18.83. 7 of the 7 models that produced a number value the shares below the current price. A gap this wide usually means the market is paying for growth or a story the trailing numbers do not show yet; the models work from filed results, not forecasts, so they are conservative by design.
The 7 models disagree widely: GLS Growth gives 0.9403 while 10 Cap gives 56.67. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files MSGS under Blend.
Nine valuation models for MSGS
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 48.80 | -88% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | 5.18 | -99% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 1.28 | -100% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 0.9403 | -100% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 56.67 | -86% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 15.39 | -96% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 3.57 | -99% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -61.36 | -115% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 496.00 | +23% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
On financial health MSGS scores 8/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is low at 2.2 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 0.9%, ROE -2.9%, ROA 0.5% - with debt at -4.34 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 0.6%.
Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Event Related 72%, Sponsorship, Signage And Suite Licenses 14%, Media Rights 10% (quarter Q4 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 8 / 9 | ROIC | 0.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 2.2 / 10 | ROE | -2.9% |
| Debt / equity | -4.34 | ROA | 0.5% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 0.6% | Payout ratio | 6% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 53: Fair
MSGS scores 53 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Fair band, 50-64): a usable but unremarkable fit for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 0/25, Health 18/20, Moat 3/15, Premium 16/20, Stability 16/20. Value (0/25) is where the points are missing.
Implied volatility is 31% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (16 of 20 points). Chain open interest is 20,682 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 456k shares a day on a market cap of $9.7B, with a beta of 0.59 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 16 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -2049% margin of safety | |
| Health | 18 / 20 | Piotroski 8/9 | |
| Moat | 3 / 15 | moat 2.2/10 | |
| Premium | 16 / 20 | implied volatility 31% | |
| Stability | 16 / 20 | 456k shares/day, $9.7B cap, beta 0.59 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. reports earnings on 30 Oct 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Entertainment
The 12 companies below are the closest to Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. by market cap within the Entertainment industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LLYVA Liberty Live Group | 96.44 | 120.78 | +20% | 45Weak | $9.2B |
| LLYVK Liberty Live Group | 99.66 | 120.73 | +17% | 45Weak | $9.2B |
| TKO TKO Group Holdings, Inc. | 172.38 | 215.97 | +20% | 80Prime | $12.6B |
| WMG Warner Music Group Corp. | 28.91 | 23.45 | -23% | 63Fair | $15.1B |
| ROKU Roku, Inc. | 152.57 | 104.70 | -46% | 47Weak | $20.2B |
| FWONA Formula One Group | 83.32 | 83.10 | -0% | 60Fair | $20.9B |
| FWONB Formula One Group | 85.00 | 69.04 | -23% | 33No options | $21.0B |
| CNK Cinemark Holdings, Inc. | 38.52 | 59.12 | +35% | 80Prime | $4.5B |
| VSNT Versant Media Group, Inc. Class A | 30.98 | 162.37 | +81% | 86Prime | $4.3B |
| FWONK Liberty Media Corporation | 90.81 | 73.34 | -24% | 56Fair | $22.8B |
| MSGE Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. | 79.72 | 80.21 | +1% | 63Fair | $3.8B |
| SPHR Sphere Entertainment Co. | 103.98 | 144.60 | +28% | 45Weak | $3.7B |
⚖ Compare MSGS with 7 of them All Communication Services stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about MSGS
Is MSGS undervalued right now?
No: at 404.66 the stock trades 2049% above the GLS average fair value of 18.83 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of MSGS and what does it mean?
MSGS scores 53 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for MSGS?
18.83 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 7 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 30 Oct 2026 (before the open), 14 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does MSGS have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 322 listed contracts with 20,682 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 31% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.