Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is NBIS undervalued?

NBIS closed at 188.41 on 16 Oct 2026, more than 30% above the GLS average fair value of 9.50. Only 0 of the 5 models that produced a value sit above the price. By our models the shares are priced well beyond what the filed earnings, cash flow and book value support; the Sunday Scan drops names like this at the "below fair value" rule.

The 5 models disagree widely: EPV gives 2.44 while Graham Number gives 13.52. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.

The nightly engine files NBIS under High Growth: revenue and earnings growing fast enough that the growth-based models carry the valuation.

Nine valuation models for NBIS

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

Financial health is average - NBIS passes 6 of the nine Piotroski tests, which passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is low at 2.8 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.

Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 1.1%, ROE 2.2%, ROA 0.8% - with debt at 1.08 times equity and negative free cash flow.

Nebius Group N.V. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain.

Institutional ownership scores 8/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.

Wheel Score 50: Fair

NBIS scores 50 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Fair band, 50-64): a usable but unremarkable fit for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 0/25, Health 13/20, Moat 4/15, Premium 13/20, Stability 19/20. Value (0/25) is where the points are missing.

Implied volatility is 87% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (13 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. The option chain is deep: 743,998 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.

Volume runs at 47.1M shares a day on a market cap of $45.2B, with a beta of 1.46 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 19 of 20.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

The next earnings report is due on 10 Nov 2026 (before the open), 25 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

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