Stock fact sheet · data as of
National CineMedia, Inc. (NCMI): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol NCMI · Communication Services · Advertising Agencies · United States · Speculative Income
Is NCMI undervalued?
National CineMedia, Inc. (NCMI) closed at 1.57 on 5 Nov 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 3 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 7.09, which puts the price 78% below it. 3 of the 3 models value the shares above the current price. A gap this wide is rare in our universe of ~7,400 US stocks and is exactly what the Value part of the Wheel Score rewards; it is also where the question "why is it this cheap?" matters most.
The average is built from just 3 models (DCF, 10 Cap, DDM) - the rest returned nothing because an input they need (dividends, free cash flow, book value) is zero or negative - so treat it with more caution than usual.
The nightly engine files NCMI under Speculative - it is losing money or its Piotroski health score is 3 or lower - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan. It also carries the Income tag (Income = a dividend yield of 4% or more).
Nine valuation models for NCMI
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 14.64 | +832% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | 4.85 | +209% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 1.77 | +12% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 0.2179 | -86% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 3.67 | +134% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
National CineMedia, Inc. scores 6 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that passes the "Piotroski 6 or more" Wheel Trade Filter. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. A GLS Moat score of 2.9/10 is a weak reading: the accounts do not show returns and margins that competitors have been unable to wear down, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -2.4%, ROE -2.6%, ROA -1.9% - with debt at 0.05 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 14.6%.
The dividend yield is high at 7.64% (payout ratio -150%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual. Revenue comes mainly from National Advertising Revenue 77%, Local Advertising Revenue 16%, Founding Member Advertising Revenue Fro… 7% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | -2.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 2.9 / 10 | ROE | -2.6% |
| Debt / equity | 0.05 | ROA | -1.9% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 14.6% | Payout ratio | -150% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 26: Weak
With a Wheel Score of 26 National CineMedia, Inc. sits in the Weak band. It fails filter 1, options that actually trade - options too quiet (196 open interest, 13 a day); and filter 2, a real business, not a gamble - speculative (a loss, or a weak Piotroski score); and filter 6, no serious red flags - Red Flags score 45 (under 60); and filter 7, a premium worth selling - implied volatility 190% (over 80%); and filter 8, big enough - market cap $148M (under $1.0B); and filter 9, not a penny stock - price 1.57 (under $5); Premium (weak) is its weakest part.
Implied volatility is 190%, above the 80% ceiling of the Wheel Trade Filter on premium. The premium looks generous, but moves of that size can blow through any strike. Chain open interest is thin - 196 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 777k shares a day on a market cap of $148M, with a beta of 1.39 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that fair.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Fails | options too quiet (196 open interest, 13 a day) |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Fails | speculative (a loss, or a weak Piotroski score) |
| 3 | Below fair value | Passes | Trading below the nine-model average fair value (margin of safety above 0) |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Passes | Piotroski F-score 6 or more out of 9 (a company with no score on file passes) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Passes | Long-term debt repaid from 3 years of operating cash flow or less (6 for real estate and utilities; banks and insurers are not judged on it) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Fails | Red Flags score 45 (under 60) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Fails | implied volatility 190% (over 80%) |
| 8 | Big enough | Fails | market cap $148M (under $1.0B) |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Fails | price 1.57 (under $5) |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Strong | 78% below fair value | |
| Premium | Weak | implied volatility 190% | |
| Moat | Weak | moat 2.9/10 | |
| Health | Good | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Red Flags | Weak | Red Flags score 45/100 | |
| Option trading | Weak | 13 contracts a day, 196 open interest | |
| Stability | Fair | beta 1.39, $148M company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
National CineMedia, Inc. reports earnings on 10 Nov 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Advertising Agencies
The 12 companies below are the closest to National CineMedia, Inc. by market cap within the Advertising Agencies industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
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| CHR Cheer Holding, Inc. | 1.39 | 406.12 | +100% | 35No options | $41M |
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| IZEA IZEA Worldwide, Inc. | 2.34 | - | - | 8Weak | $40M |
| GRSD Grandstand Limited | 0.8500 | 72.34 | +99% | 28Weak | $30M |
| HAFG Holistic Asset Finance Group Co., Ltd. | 0.3980 | 0.0331 | -1102% | 14No options | $30M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about NCMI
Is NCMI undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 1.57 the stock is 78% below the average fair value of 7.09 (data as of 5 Nov 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of NCMI and what does it mean?
NCMI scores 26 out of 100 (Weak) - it fails Wheel Trade Filters 1, 2, 6, 7, 8, 9. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for NCMI?
7.09 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 3 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does National CineMedia, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 10 Nov 2026 (after the close), 5 days from the data date of 5 Nov 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does NCMI have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 4 listed contracts with 196 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 190% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.