Stock fact sheet · data as of
Nova Ltd. (NVMI): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Technology · Semiconductors · Israel · Speculative / Distressed
Is NVMI undervalued?
Nova Ltd. (NVMI) closed at 329.44 on 16 Oct 2026, 92% above the GLS average fair value of 171.52. 7 of the 8 models that produced a number value the shares below the current price. A gap this wide usually means the market is paying for growth or a story the trailing numbers do not show yet; the models work from filed results, not forecasts, so they are conservative by design.
The 8 models disagree widely: Lynch gives 56.85 while GLS Growth gives 451.27. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files NVMI under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for NVMI
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 105.47 | -68% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 93.96 | -71% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 180.75 | -45% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 56.85 | -83% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 451.27 | +37% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 157.67 | -52% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 233.22 | -29% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 93.00 | -72% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 11.59 | -96% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 556.50 | +69% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is weak: NVMI passes 3 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our screens drop the stock at the health rule; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. The GLS Moat score is 6.4 out of 10: a ten-year record that is consistent in some of the metrics the score tracks (revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, returns on capital) and patchy in others.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 11.9%, ROE 19.7%, ROA 11.0% - with debt at 0.65 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 1.8%.
Nova Ltd. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Product 100% (fiscal year FY2025).
Institutional ownership scores 8/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 3 / 9 | ROIC | 11.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 6.4 / 10 | ROE | 19.7% |
| Debt / equity | 0.65 | ROA | 11.0% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 1.8% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 8 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 45: Weak
NVMI scores 45 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50), capped at 45 because the engine files it as Speculative / Distressed. Value 0/25, Health 7/20, Moat 10/15, Premium 18/20, Stability 14/20. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 67% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (18 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is 13,230 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 469k shares a day on a market cap of $10.5B, with a beta of 1.78 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 14 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -92% margin of safety | |
| Health | 7 / 20 | Piotroski 3/9 | |
| Moat | 10 / 15 | moat 6.4/10 | |
| Premium | 18 / 20 | implied volatility 67% | |
| Stability | 14 / 20 | 469k shares/day, $10.5B cap, beta 1.78 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 5 Nov 2026 (before the open), 20 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Semiconductors
The 12 companies below are the closest to Nova Ltd. by market cap within the Semiconductors industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMKR Amkor Technology, Inc. | 44.05 | 31.63 | -39% | 54Fair | $10.9B |
| RMBS Rambus Inc. | 92.11 | 64.60 | -43% | 56Fair | $10.0B |
| ONTO Onto Innovation Inc. | 231.95 | 82.11 | -182% | 56Fair | $11.4B |
| SWKS Skyworks Solutions, Inc. | 76.89 | 39.09 | -97% | 55Fair | $11.6B |
| FORM FormFactor, Inc. | 113.34 | 32.73 | -246% | 57Fair | $8.9B |
| SIMO Silicon Motion Technology Corporation | 223.58 | 708.47 | +68% | 70Good | $7.5B |
| SLAB Silicon Laboratories Inc. | 221.09 | 7.51 | -2842% | 39Weak | $7.4B |
| SMTC Semtech Corporation | 160.26 | 56.25 | -185% | 46Weak | $15.0B |
| LSCC Lattice Semiconductor Corporation | 107.09 | 10.62 | -908% | 56Fair | $15.2B |
| MXL MaxLinear, Inc. | 78.18 | 0.7046 | -10995% | 32Weak | $7.1B |
| SITM SiTime Corporation | 524.93 | 32.89 | -1496% | 44Weak | $15.7B |
| CAMT Camtek Ltd. | 131.38 | 30.01 | -338% | 45Weak | $6.1B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about NVMI
Is NVMI undervalued right now?
No: at 329.44 the stock trades 92% above the GLS average fair value of 171.52 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of NVMI and what does it mean?
NVMI scores 45 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for NVMI?
171.52 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Nova Ltd. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 5 Nov 2026 (before the open), 20 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does NVMI have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 680 listed contracts with 13,230 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 67% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.