Stock fact sheet · data as of
Nova Ltd. (NVMI): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol NVMI · Technology · Semiconductors · Israel · Speculative
Is NVMI undervalued?
Nova Ltd. (NVMI) closed at 295.35 on 5 Nov 2026, 68% above the GLS average fair value of 175.62. 7 of the 8 models that produced a number value the shares below the current price. A gap this wide usually means the market is paying for growth or a story the trailing numbers do not show yet; the models work from filed results, not forecasts, so they are conservative by design.
The 8 models disagree widely: Lynch gives 59.20 while GLS Growth gives 469.89. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files NVMI under Speculative - it is losing money or its Piotroski health score is 3 or lower - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for NVMI
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 104.71 | -65% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 93.96 | -68% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 188.21 | -36% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 59.20 | -80% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 469.89 | +59% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 158.92 | -46% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 233.22 | -21% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 96.84 | -67% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 11.59 | -96% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 556.50 | +88% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is weak: NVMI passes 3 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our scans drop the stock at the health filter; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. The GLS Moat score is 7.4 out of 10: a record that is solid on some of the four parts the score weighs (returns on capital, pricing power, lasting growth, balance sheet) and weaker on others.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 11.9%, ROE 19.7%, ROA 11.0% - with debt at 0.65 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 2.1%.
Nova Ltd. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Product 100% (fiscal year FY2025).
Institutional ownership scores 8/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 3 / 9 | ROIC | 11.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 7.4 / 10 | ROE | 19.7% |
| Debt / equity | 0.65 | ROA | 11.0% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 2.1% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 8 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 34: Weak
NVMI scores 34 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50): it fails filter 2, a real business, not a gamble - speculative (a loss, or a weak Piotroski score); and filter 3, below fair value - trades 68% above our fair value; and filter 4, financially healthy - Piotroski 3/9 (under 6); and filter 5, can repay its debt - 3.2 years to repay its debt (over 3), and the parts are thin too - value weak, premium strong, moat good, health weak, red flags fair, option trading fair, stability fair. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 60% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% sweet spot the Wheel Score rewards most: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 5,363 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 370k shares a day on a market cap of $9.4B, with a beta of 1.85 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that fair.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Passes | Listed options with 1,000+ contracts of open interest and 100+ traded a day |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Fails | speculative (a loss, or a weak Piotroski score) |
| 3 | Below fair value | Fails | trades 68% above our fair value |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Fails | Piotroski 3/9 (under 6) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Fails | 3.2 years to repay its debt (over 3) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Weak | 68% above fair value | |
| Premium | Strong | implied volatility 60% | |
| Moat | Good | moat 7.4/10 | |
| Health | Weak | Piotroski 3/9 | |
| Red Flags | Fair | Red Flags score 75/100 | |
| Option trading | Fair | 2,124 contracts a day, 5,363 open interest | |
| Stability | Fair | beta 1.85, $9.4B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Nova Ltd. reports earnings on 5 Nov 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Analysts downgraded NVMI 1 time in the last 30 days with no upgrades; the latest action was a downgrade by Citigroup on 8 Oct 2026.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Semiconductors
The 12 companies below are the closest to Nova Ltd. by market cap within the Semiconductors industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONTO Onto Innovation Inc. | 184.82 | 81.97 | -125% | 31Weak | $9.1B |
| RMBS Rambus Inc. | 82.90 | 71.23 | -16% | 37Weak | $8.9B |
| AMKR Amkor Technology, Inc. | 35.66 | 32.40 | -10% | 35Weak | $8.8B |
| SMTC Semtech Corporation | 110.96 | 56.25 | -97% | 31Weak | $10.4B |
| SLAB Silicon Laboratories Inc. | 222.00 | 7.25 | -2962% | 23Weak | $7.4B |
| SITM SiTime Corporation | 403.27 | 47.84 | -743% | 19Weak | $12.1B |
| SWKS Skyworks Solutions, Inc. | 82.92 | 31.62 | -162% | 40Weak | $12.5B |
| FORM FormFactor, Inc. | 85.24 | 47.06 | -81% | 33Weak | $6.7B |
| SIMO Silicon Motion Technology Corporation | 182.54 | 862.57 | +79% | 48Weak | $6.1B |
| ALGM Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. | 31.25 | 7.61 | -310% | 37Weak | $5.8B |
| CRUS Cirrus Logic, Inc. | 115.99 | 204.87 | +43% | 79Good | $5.8B |
| LSCC Lattice Semiconductor Corporation | 107.25 | 12.67 | -746% | 37Weak | $15.2B |
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A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the top 10 stocks that pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about NVMI
Is NVMI undervalued right now?
No: at 295.35 the stock trades 68% above the GLS average fair value of 175.62 (data as of 5 Nov 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of NVMI and what does it mean?
NVMI scores 34 out of 100 (Weak) - it fails Wheel Trade Filters 2, 3, 4, 5. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for NVMI?
175.62 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Nova Ltd. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 5 Nov 2026 (before the open), 0 days from the data date of 5 Nov 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does NVMI have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 156 listed contracts with 5,363 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 60% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.