Stock fact sheet · data as of
Semtech Corporation (SMTC): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Technology · Semiconductors · United States · High Growth
Is SMTC undervalued?
Semtech Corporation (SMTC) closed at 160.26 on 16 Oct 2026, 185% above the GLS average fair value of 56.25. 7 of the 7 models that produced a number value the shares below the current price. A gap this wide usually means the market is paying for growth or a story the trailing numbers do not show yet; the models work from filed results, not forecasts, so they are conservative by design.
There is a wide gap between Graham Number (17.26) and GLS Growth (101.01). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files SMTC under High Growth: revenue and earnings growing fast enough that the growth-based models carry the valuation.
Nine valuation models for SMTC
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | 17.26 | -89% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 94.38 | -41% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 41.25 | -74% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 101.01 | -37% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 44.49 | -72% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 77.01 | -52% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 18.33 | -89% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -2.20 | -101% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 216.38 | +35% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Semtech Corporation scores 7 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule with room to spare. A GLS Moat score of 3.0/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -3.9%, ROE -7.3%, ROA -2.9% - with debt at 0.90 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 1.2%.
Semtech Corporation pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Semiconductor Products Group 42%, Signal Integrity 22%, Advanced Protection And Sensing Product… 20% (quarter Q2 FY2027).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 1/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | -3.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 3.0 / 10 | ROE | -7.3% |
| Debt / equity | 0.90 | ROA | -2.9% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 1.2% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 1 / 10 |
Wheel Score 46: Weak
With a Wheel Score of 46 Semtech Corporation sits in the Weak band. The parts - Value 0/25, Health 16/20, Moat 5/15, Premium 10/20, Stability 16/20 - show where: Value (0/25) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 99% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (10 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. The option chain is deep: 95,602 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 3.3M shares a day on a market cap of $15.0B, with a beta of 2.42 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 16 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -185% margin of safety | |
| Health | 16 / 20 | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Moat | 5 / 15 | moat 3.0/10 | |
| Premium | 10 / 20 | implied volatility 99% | |
| Stability | 16 / 20 | 3.3M shares/day, $15.0B cap, beta 2.42 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 23 Nov 2026 (after the close), 38 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Semiconductors
The 12 companies below are the closest to Semtech Corporation by market cap within the Semiconductors industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LSCC Lattice Semiconductor Corporation | 107.09 | 10.62 | -908% | 56Fair | $15.2B |
| SITM SiTime Corporation | 524.93 | 32.89 | -1496% | 44Weak | $15.7B |
| SWKS Skyworks Solutions, Inc. | 76.89 | 39.09 | -97% | 55Fair | $11.6B |
| ONTO Onto Innovation Inc. | 231.95 | 82.11 | -182% | 56Fair | $11.4B |
| AMKR Amkor Technology, Inc. | 44.05 | 31.63 | -39% | 54Fair | $10.9B |
| MTSI MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. | 271.39 | 61.61 | -340% | 52Fair | $20.7B |
| NVMI Nova Ltd. | 329.44 | 171.52 | -92% | 45Weak | $10.5B |
| RMBS Rambus Inc. | 92.11 | 64.60 | -43% | 56Fair | $10.0B |
| ENTG Entegris, Inc. | 146.87 | 44.24 | -232% | 60Fair | $22.4B |
| TSEM Tower Semiconductor Ltd. | 209.16 | 61.40 | -241% | 54Fair | $23.6B |
| FORM FormFactor, Inc. | 113.34 | 32.73 | -246% | 57Fair | $8.9B |
| Q Qnity Electronics, Inc. | 121.62 | 46.23 | -163% | 64Fair | $25.4B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about SMTC
Is SMTC undervalued right now?
No: at 160.26 the stock trades 185% above the GLS average fair value of 56.25 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of SMTC and what does it mean?
SMTC scores 46 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for SMTC?
56.25 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 7 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Semtech Corporation report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 23 Nov 2026 (after the close), 38 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does SMTC have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 1,000 listed contracts with 95,602 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 99% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.