Stock fact sheet · data as of
Novonix Limited (NVX): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Industrials · Electrical Equipment & Parts · Australia · ADR · Speculative / Distressed
Is NVX undervalued?
Novonix Limited (NVX) closed at 2.18 on 16 Oct 2026. None of the nine GLS valuation models produced a positive value for the stock - the company lost money over the last twelve months, EPS -4.24, it pays no dividend and its debts exceed what its assets would fetch - so there is no GLS average fair value and no margin of safety to report. The quality, option and event numbers below still apply; the Quote page's Wall Street View shows what analysts expect instead.
The nightly engine files NVX under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for NVX
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -0.1743 | -108% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 0.0000 | -100% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is weak: NVX passes 2 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our screens drop the stock at the health rule; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. The GLS Moat score is low at 0.0 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -36.2%, ROE -59.1%, ROA -32.8% - with debt at 0.63 times equity and negative free cash flow.
Novonix Limited pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Hardware Sales 95%, Services Sales 5% (fiscal year FY2025).
Institutional ownership scores 1/10, insider activity 10/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 2 / 9 | ROIC | -36.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 0.0 / 10 | ROE | -59.1% |
| Debt / equity | 0.63 | ROA | -32.8% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -131.4% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 1 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 10 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 29: Weak
NVX scores 29 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50). Value 13/25, Health 4/20, Moat 0/15, Premium 6/20, Stability 7/20. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 117% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (6 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is 2,507 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 19k shares a day on a market cap of $458M, with a beta of 0.85; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 7 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 13 / 25 | 0% margin of safety | |
| Health | 4 / 20 | Piotroski 2/9 | |
| Moat | 0 / 15 | moat 0.0/10 | |
| Premium | 6 / 20 | implied volatility 117% | |
| Stability | 7 / 20 | 19k shares/day, $458M cap, beta 0.85 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for NVX in the nightly calendar.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Electrical Equipment & Parts
The 12 companies below are the closest to Novonix Limited by market cap within the Electrical Equipment & Parts industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BLDP Ballard Power Systems Inc. | 1.67 | - | - | 45Weak | $503M |
| NRGV Energy Vault Holdings, Inc. | 3.06 | - | - | 41Weak | $556M |
| ENVX Enovix Corporation | 2.68 | - | - | 42Weak | $588M |
| KE Kimball Electronics, Inc. | 26.50 | 45.27 | +41% | 75Good | $636M |
| NNE Nano Nuclear Energy Inc. | 13.59 | 5.27 | -158% | 39Weak | $730M |
| ADSE ADS-TEC Energy PLC | 10.00 | - | - | 31Weak | $752M |
| LYTS LSI Industries Inc. | 20.23 | 16.87 | -20% | 47Weak | $755M |
| EOSE Eos Energy Enterprises, Inc. | 2.16 | - | - | 38Weak | $781M |
| ELVA Electrovaya Inc. | 5.36 | 3.05 | -76% | 40Weak | $268M |
| TE T1 Energy Inc | 2.90 | 65.51 | +96% | 45Weak | $869M |
| AIRJ AirJoule Technologies Corporation | 3.20 | 0.3836 | -734% | 25Weak | $235M |
| EAF GrafTech International Ltd. | 7.36 | - | - | 32Weak | $192M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about NVX
Is NVX undervalued right now?
The GLS models could not value NVX (the company lost money over the last twelve months, EPS -4.24, it pays no dividend and its debts exceed what its assets would fetch), so there is no fair value or margin of safety to compare the price of 2.18 against.
What is the Wheel Score of NVX and what does it mean?
NVX scores 29 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for NVX?
None of the nine GLS models produced a positive value for NVX (the company lost money over the last twelve months, EPS -4.24, it pays no dividend and its debts exceed what its assets would fetch), so there is no GLS fair value tonight.
When does Novonix Limited report earnings next?
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for NVX in our calendar as of 16 Oct 2026; the Calendars page is refreshed every morning.
Does NVX have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 56 listed contracts with 2,507 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 117% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.