Stock fact sheet · data as of
Northwest Bancshares, Inc. (NWBI): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Banks - Regional · United States · High Yield Income
Is NWBI undervalued?
At 14.89 (close of 16 Oct 2026), NWBI trades 14% over the GLS average fair value of 13.04. 5 of the 9 models land above the price and 4 below. A negative margin of safety costs Value points in the Wheel Score (7 of 25 here) - the models see no discount, which does not make the business a poor one, only the price a full one.
The 9 models disagree widely: GLS Growth gives 0.8159 while 10 Cap gives 25.90. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files NWBI under High Yield Income: a dividend yield above 4%.
Nine valuation models for NWBI
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 15.14 | +2% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 17.51 | +18% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 15.31 | +3% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 3.41 | -77% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 0.8159 | -95% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 25.90 | +74% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 15.93 | +7% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 11.77 | -21% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 11.55 | -22% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -88.80 | -696% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 17.50 | +18% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - NWBI passes 5 of the nine Piotroski tests, which falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is 5.1 out of 10: a ten-year record that is consistent in some of the metrics the score tracks (revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, returns on capital) and patchy in others.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 5.4%, ROE 6.7%, ROA 0.8% - with debt at 0.24 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 6.3%.
The dividend yield is high at 5.37% (payout ratio 77%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual. Revenue comes mainly from Banking 100% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 9/10, insider activity 7/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | 5.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 5.1 / 10 | ROE | 6.7% |
| Debt / equity | 0.24 | ROA | 0.8% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 6.3% | Payout ratio | 77% |
| Institutions | 9 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 7 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 61: Fair
NWBI scores 61 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Fair band, 50-64): a usable but unremarkable fit for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 7/25, Health 11/20, Moat 8/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 16/20. Value (7/25) is where the points are missing.
Implied volatility is 48% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is thin - 758 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 1.0M shares a day on a market cap of $2.2B, with a beta of 0.69 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 16 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 7 / 25 | -14% margin of safety | |
| Health | 11 / 20 | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Moat | 8 / 15 | moat 5.1/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 48% | |
| Stability | 16 / 20 | 1.0M shares/day, $2.2B cap, beta 0.69 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Northwest Bancshares, Inc. reports earnings on 26 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Banks - Regional
The 12 companies below are the closest to Northwest Bancshares, Inc. by market cap within the Banks - Regional industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OFG OFG Bancorp | 52.13 | 66.55 | +22% | 76Good | $2.2B |
| EFSC Enterprise Financial Services Corp | 59.27 | 80.50 | +26% | 82Prime | $2.1B |
| WAFD WaFd, Inc. | 28.91 | 40.88 | +29% | 79Good | $2.1B |
| WAFDP WaFd, Inc. | 14.90 | 33.53 | +56% | 39No options | $2.1B |
| EFSCP Enterprise Financial Services Corp | 15.78 | 48.37 | +67% | 39No options | $2.1B |
| MBIN Merchants Bancorp | 48.95 | 125.01 | +61% | 68Good | $2.2B |
| MBINM Merchants Bancorp | 24.92 | 94.16 | +74% | 39No options | $2.3B |
| HTH Hilltop Holdings Inc. | 36.77 | 25.00 | -47% | 50Fair | $2.1B |
| MBINL Merchants Bancorp | 23.14 | 91.88 | +75% | 39No options | $2.3B |
| MBINN Merchants Bancorp | 18.97 | 86.53 | +78% | 39No options | $2.3B |
| FIISO Financial Institutions, Inc. 8.48% SRB1 PFD B | 115.65 | 77.38 | -49% | 31No options | $2.3B |
| NTB The Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son Limited | 58.28 | 119.02 | +51% | 73Good | $2.3B |
⚖ Compare NWBI with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about NWBI
Is NWBI undervalued right now?
No: at 14.89 the stock trades 14% above the GLS average fair value of 13.04 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). The margin of safety is negative.
What is the Wheel Score of NWBI and what does it mean?
NWBI scores 61 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for NWBI?
13.04 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Northwest Bancshares, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 26 Oct 2026 (after the close), 10 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does NWBI have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 110 listed contracts with 758 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 48% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.