Stock fact sheet · data as of
NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust (NXDT): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Real Estate · REIT - Diversified · United States · Speculative / Distressed
Is NXDT undervalued?
At 4.98 (close of 16 Oct 2026), NXDT trades 11% under the GLS average fair value of 5.60. 1 of the 2 models that produced a value land above the price. A discount of this size counts as a positive margin of safety in every GLS screen; whether it is enough depends on the rest of the picture - the health score, the moat and the option premium below.
Only 2 of the nine models produced a value (DCF, DDM); the others need a dividend, positive free cash flow or positive book value the company does not have yet, so the average rests on a narrow base.
The nightly engine files NXDT under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for NXDT
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 4.13 | -17% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 7.06 | +42% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -6.46 | -230% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 0.0000 | -100% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is weak: NXDT passes 3 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our screens drop the stock at the health rule; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. The GLS Moat score is low at 0.2 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -12.1%, ROE -17.4%, ROA -11.6% - with debt at 0.43 times equity and negative free cash flow.
The dividend yield is high at 9.64% (payout ratio -18%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual. Revenue comes mainly from Occupancy 88%, Food and Beverage 12% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 7/10, insider activity 10/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 3 / 9 | ROIC | -12.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 0.2 / 10 | ROE | -17.4% |
| Debt / equity | 0.43 | ROA | -11.6% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -1.4% | Payout ratio | -18% |
| Institutions | 7 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 10 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 45: Weak
NXDT scores 45 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50), capped at 45 because the engine files it as Speculative / Distressed. Value 17/25, Health 7/20, Moat 0/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 7/20. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 58% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 3,907 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 152k shares a day on a market cap of $264M, with a beta of 0.90; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 7 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 17 / 25 | 11% margin of safety | |
| Health | 7 / 20 | Piotroski 3/9 | |
| Moat | 0 / 15 | moat 0.2/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 58% | |
| Stability | 7 / 20 | 152k shares/day, $264M cap, beta 0.90 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 12 Nov 2026, 27 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in REIT - Diversified
The 12 companies below are the closest to NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust by market cap within the REIT - Diversified industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INRE Inland Real Estate Income Trust, Inc. | 10.50 | 7.98 | -32% | 11No options | $379M |
| FVR FrontView REIT, Inc. | 17.10 | 10.38 | -65% | 27No options | $418M |
| OLP One Liberty Properties, Inc. | 22.13 | 22.47 | +1% | 56Fair | $483M |
| FREVS First Real Estate Investment Trust of New Jersey, Inc. | 18.55 | 24.29 | +24% | 39No options | $139M |
| GOODO Gladstone Commercial Corporation | 17.91 | 19.13 | +6% | 39No options | $552M |
| AHRT AH Realty Trust, Inc. | 5.97 | 20.83 | +71% | 45Weak | $573M |
| LVVP Lightstone Value Plus Real Estate Investment Trust V, Inc. | 7.50 | 4.78 | -57% | 16No options | $121M |
| GOOD Gladstone Commercial Corporation | 12.64 | 17.57 | +28% | 67Good | $612M |
| GOODN Gladstone Commercial Corp Pref | 20.04 | 19.49 | -3% | 39No options | $625M |
| JBGS JBG SMITH Properties | 11.08 | 8.93 | -24% | 45Weak | $649M |
| CTO CTO Realty Growth, Inc. | 20.60 | 23.29 | +12% | 61Fair | $772M |
| CMRF CIM Real Estate Finance Trust, Inc. | 1.83 | 3.56 | +49% | 39No options | $796M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about NXDT
Is NXDT undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, moderately: at 4.98 the stock trades 11% below the average fair value of 5.60 (data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of NXDT and what does it mean?
NXDT scores 45 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for NXDT?
5.60 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 2 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 12 Nov 2026, 27 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does NXDT have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 36 listed contracts with 3,907 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 58% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.