Stock fact sheet · data as of
Octave Intelligence plc (OCTV): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Technology · Software - Application · United States · Speculative / Distressed
Is OCTV undervalued?
Octave Intelligence plc (OCTV) closed at 20.68 on 16 Oct 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 2 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 126.50, which puts the price 84% below it. 2 of the 2 models value the shares above the current price. A gap this wide is rare in our universe of ~7,400 US stocks and is exactly what the Value part of the Wheel Score rewards; it is also where the question "why is it this cheap?" matters most.
Only 2 of the nine models produced a value (DCF, 10 Cap); the others need a dividend, positive free cash flow or positive book value the company does not have yet, so the average rests on a narrow base.
The nightly engine files OCTV under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for OCTV
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 222.91 | +978% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | 30.09 | +46% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -1.35 | -107% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 22.00 | +6% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is weak: OCTV passes 0 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our screens drop the stock at the health rule; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. The GLS Moat score is 5.0 out of 10: a ten-year record that is consistent in some of the metrics the score tracks (revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, returns on capital) and patchy in others.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 3.2%, ROE 3.2%, ROA 2.9% - with debt at 0.01 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 7.9%.
Octave Intelligence plc pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Subscriptions And Licenses 40%, Subscriptions 35%, Software As A Service 11% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 1/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 0 / 9 | ROIC | 3.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 5.0 / 10 | ROE | 3.2% |
| Debt / equity | 0.01 | ROA | 2.9% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 7.9% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 1 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 45: Weak
OCTV scores 45 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50), capped at 45 because the engine files it as Speculative / Distressed. Value 25/25, Health 0/20, Moat 8/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 18/20. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 44% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is thin - 1,025 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 1.5M shares a day on a market cap of $5.6B, with a beta of -5.93 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 18 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 84% margin of safety | |
| Health | 0 / 20 | Piotroski 0/9 | |
| Moat | 8 / 15 | moat 5.0/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 44% | |
| Stability | 18 / 20 | 1.5M shares/day, $5.6B cap, beta -5.93 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 11 Nov 2026, 26 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Software - Application
The 12 companies below are the closest to Octave Intelligence plc by market cap within the Software - Application industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RNG RingCentral, Inc. | 75.20 | 61.20 | -23% | 65Good | $5.5B |
| PEGA Pegasystems Inc. | 33.83 | 49.00 | +31% | 87Prime | $5.6B |
| NIQ NIQ Global Intelligence Plc | 18.94 | 54.11 | +65% | 45Weak | $5.6B |
| KVYO Klaviyo, Inc. | 18.09 | 6.29 | -188% | 50Fair | $5.4B |
| DLB Dolby Laboratories, Inc. | 60.83 | 52.79 | -15% | 63Fair | $5.7B |
| NAVN Navan, Inc. | 25.20 | 3.13 | -705% | 45Weak | $6.2B |
| OTEX Open Text Corporation | 25.83 | 121.03 | +79% | 94Prime | $6.3B |
| BLSH Bullish | 31.87 | 13.11 | -143% | 45Weak | $4.8B |
| LYFT Lyft, Inc. | 17.16 | 194.22 | +91% | 80Prime | $6.5B |
| DAVE Dave Inc. | 369.00 | 610.25 | +40% | 68Good | $4.7B |
| CVLT Commvault Systems, Inc. | 158.91 | 49.00 | -224% | 58Fair | $6.6B |
| YOU Clear Secure, Inc. | 44.31 | 61.36 | +28% | 86Prime | $4.6B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about OCTV
Is OCTV undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 20.68 the stock is 84% below the average fair value of 126.50 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of OCTV and what does it mean?
OCTV scores 45 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for OCTV?
126.50 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 2 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Octave Intelligence plc report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 11 Nov 2026, 26 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does OCTV have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 102 listed contracts with 1,025 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 44% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.