Stock fact sheet · data as of
Old National Bancorp (ONB): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol ONB · Financial Services · Banks - Regional · United States · Value
Is ONB undervalued?
Old National Bancorp (ONB) closed at 25.89 on 5 Nov 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 9 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 44.51, which puts the price 42% below it. 6 of the 9 models value the shares above the current price. A gap this wide is rare in our universe of ~7,400 US stocks and is exactly what the Value part of the Wheel Score rewards; it is also where the question "why is it this cheap?" matters most.
There is a wide gap between GLS Growth (6.34) and DCF (109.50). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
Ranked against every other company we cover, ONB is clearly cheaper than it is fast-growing, so the nightly engine files it under Value (value score 70, growth score 45, out of 100).
Nine valuation models for ONB
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 109.50 | +323% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 35.25 | +36% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 71.28 | +175% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 25.72 | -1% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 6.34 | -76% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 66.57 | +157% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 49.41 | +91% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 8.46 | -67% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 28.06 | +8% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -162.26 | -727% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 29.63 | +14% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Old National Bancorp scores 5 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that falls one point short of the "Piotroski 6 or more" Wheel Trade Filter. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. On durability ONB scores 5.9/10 on the GLS Moat - a middle reading; the Moat Score tab on the Quote page's Financials view shows which of the four parts hold it back.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 4.2%, ROE 7.9%, ROA 0.9% - with debt at 0.88 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 10.2%.
The dividend yield is 2.22% at a payout ratio of 25%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Wealth Management Services 31%, Deposit Account 29%, Investment Advisory, Management and Adm… 20% (quarter Q4 FY2021).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | 4.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 5.9 / 10 | ROE | 7.9% |
| Debt / equity | 0.88 | ROA | 0.9% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 10.2% | Payout ratio | 25% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 50: Fair
A Wheel Score of 50 keeps Old National Bancorp under 70, the mark only a stock that passes all 9 Wheel Trade Filters can reach: it fails filter 1, options that actually trade - options too quiet (223 open interest, 121 a day); and filter 4, financially healthy - Piotroski 5/9 (under 6). The parts: value strong, premium strong, moat fair, health fair, red flags strong, option trading weak, stability good.
Implied volatility is 45% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% sweet spot the Wheel Score rewards most: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is thin - 223 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 4.7M shares a day on a market cap of $9.8B, with a beta of 0.88; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that good.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Fails | options too quiet (223 open interest, 121 a day) |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Passes | Profitable over the last twelve months - not a speculative stock, fund or note |
| 3 | Below fair value | Passes | Trading below the nine-model average fair value (margin of safety above 0) |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Fails | Piotroski 5/9 (under 6) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Passes | Long-term debt repaid from 3 years of operating cash flow or less (6 for real estate and utilities; banks and insurers are not judged on it) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Strong | 42% below fair value | |
| Premium | Strong | implied volatility 45% | |
| Moat | Fair | moat 5.9/10 | |
| Health | Fair | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Red Flags | Strong | Red Flags score 92/100 | |
| Option trading | Weak | 121 contracts a day, 223 open interest | |
| Stability | Good | beta 0.88, $9.8B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 20 Jan 2027, 76 days away - outside the window of a 30-45-day put sold today.
Analysts upgraded ONB 1 time in the last 30 days with no downgrades; the latest action was a reiterated rating by Raymond James on 22 Oct 2026.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Banks - Regional
The 12 companies below are the closest to Old National Bancorp by market cap within the Banks - Regional industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONBPP Old National Bancorp | 25.37 | 43.99 | +42% | 34No options | $9.8B |
| BPOPM Popular Capital Trust II PFD GTD 6.125% | 25.18 | 97.27 | +74% | 29No options | $9.8B |
| ONBPO Old National Bancorp | 25.00 | 43.76 | +43% | 35No options | $9.7B |
| ZION Zions Bancorporation, National Association | 66.63 | 109.29 | +39% | 81Good | $9.7B |
| CFR Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. | 159.69 | 142.02 | -12% | 30Weak | $9.9B |
| BPOP Popular, Inc. | 158.72 | 213.51 | +26% | 80Good | $10.0B |
| SSB SouthState Bank Corp. | 106.65 | 157.73 | +32% | 39Weak | $10.3B |
| ZIONP Zions Bancorporation, National Association | 16.45 | 68.28 | +76% | 36No options | $9.3B |
| UMBF UMB Financial Corporation | 138.51 | 212.60 | +35% | 41Weak | $10.5B |
| WTFC Wintrust Financial Corporation | 156.12 | 260.57 | +40% | 47Weak | $10.5B |
| COLB Columbia Banking System, Inc. | 31.37 | 48.62 | +35% | 70Good | $9.1B |
| CBC Central Bancompany | 37.90 | 25.58 | -48% | 29Weak | $9.1B |
⚖ Compare ONB with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the top 10 stocks that pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about ONB
Is ONB undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 25.89 the stock is 42% below the average fair value of 44.51 (data as of 5 Nov 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of ONB and what does it mean?
ONB scores 50 out of 100 (Fair) - it fails Wheel Trade Filters 1, 4. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for ONB?
44.51 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Old National Bancorp report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 20 Jan 2027, 76 days from the data date of 5 Nov 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does ONB have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 24 listed contracts with 223 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 45% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.