Old National Bancorp (ONB): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is ONB undervalued?

Old National Bancorp (ONB) closed at 25.00 on 16 Oct 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 9 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 43.30, which puts the price 42% below it. 7 of the 9 models value the shares above the current price. A gap this wide is rare in our universe of ~7,400 US stocks and is exactly what the Value part of the Wheel Score rewards; it is also where the question "why is it this cheap?" matters most.

There is a wide gap between GLS Growth (6.24) and DCF (108.32). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.

The nightly engine files ONB under Value: positive earnings at a P/E of 18 or less.

Nine valuation models for ONB

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

Old National Bancorp scores 7 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule with room to spare. On durability ONB scores 5.4/10 on the GLS Moat - a middle reading; the Scorecard on the Quote page's Financials tab shows which ten-year lines are steady and which are not.

Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 4.2%, ROE 7.9%, ROA 0.9% - with debt at 0.88 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 10.2%.

The dividend yield is 2.30% at a payout ratio of 27%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Wealth Management Services 31%, Deposit Account 29%, Investment Advisory, Management and Adm… 20% (quarter Q4 FY2021).

Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.

Wheel Score 89: Prime

With a Wheel Score of 89, Old National Bancorp sits in the Prime band - price, quality and premium all line up for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 25/25, Health 16/20, Moat 8/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 20/20. A high score is a ranking, not a signal: it says nothing about timing, the earnings date or your position size.

Implied volatility is 47% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is thin - 470 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.

Volume runs at 6.0M shares a day on a market cap of $9.6B, with a beta of 0.86; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

Old National Bancorp reports earnings on 21 Oct 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

Similar stocks in Banks - Regional

The 12 companies below are the closest to Old National Bancorp by market cap within the Banks - Regional industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.

⚖ Compare ONB with 7 of them   All Financial Services stocks →